What Do Disease and Nuclear Reactors Have In Common?
September 8th, 2012
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In a nuclear reactor, a fissile substance, such as uranium or plutonium produces a fission chain reaction. In such substances, a few atoms fission from time to time, due to spontaneous fission or neutrons introduced from an outside source. When this happens, more neutrons are released. Each fission reaction releases more neutrons. Some of those neutrons strike other atoms and produce fission and some do not. In a small pile of uranium, a few fissions will happen, from time to time, and those fissions will sometimes cause more fissions to occur, but most neutrons will not produce more fission, so while one fission event may spawn a few more, it will not produce anything sustained.
You might expect that as the amount of fissile material increases, the amount of fissions would increase at a relatively linear rate to the amount of material. That, however, is not what happens. As more material is added, very little happens. Spontaneous fissions continue to occur, but the rate at which secondary fissions occur increases by a very modest amount. Then, at some point, it all changes, the relatively flat increase in fission rate suddenly surges, and within microseconds, the material has gone form a few isolated fission events to continuous sustained fission.
The reactor has reached what is known as “critical mass.” This is the point where each fission that occurs produces at least one more fission on average. It may go beyond being critical to becoming “super critical” where the rate of fission increases dramatically in a short period of time. Because critical mass is such a sudden tipping point, it can come without warning, as has been the case in criticality accidents. It’s also why a nuclear bomb can go from almost no fissions at all to fissioning nearly the entire mass of plutonium or uranium in nanoseconds.
What does this have to do with disease? More than one might think.
If an infected individual is introduced to a population of uninfected individuals, whether the disease will be able to grow to a full-blown outbreak has a great deal to do with what percent of the population is susceptible to that disease, for example, because they are not vaccinated. The exact number of persons without vaccination needed to sustain an outbreak depends on the nature of the disease, such as how easily it is passed on, how long it lasts and the method of transmission.
In general, if only a small number of persons are susceptible to the disease, the initial infected person may pass it onto one or more others and those others may or may not pass it on to one or more others, but the number of cases stemming from each infected individual is small enough that the disease never gets a real foothold in the population and never manages to infect more than a handful of persons before the outbreak fizzles out.
At some point, however, enough people are not vaccinated that each new infection has a pretty good chance of passing it onto someone else, thus sustaining the outbreak and resulting in numbers of infections that increase exponentially.
And that is how THIS happens:
The above graph is from the CDC and shows the number of cases of Pertussis (whooping cough) in Washington State, although similar graphs exist showing outbreaks elsewhere. Pertussis is a disease that causes fits of coughing and respiratory distress. In adults, it can be a miserable condition, but is rarely dangerous. In children, it may require hospitalization, and in infants, it can easily be deadly.
The reason for the outbreak boils down to the fact that more and more parents have been avoiding vaccinating their children because of bogus claims of vaccine dangers. This trend has been going since the 1990’s. Health officials had been warning of the dangers, but most saw few repercussions. Whooping cough rates have been going up, but only at a relatively slow rate.
Then, between 2011 and 2012, the number of cases increased by as much as 25-50 times! This graph gives a bit more context to how dramatic this spike is.
At this point, that threshold has been crossed. There is no longer enough herd immunity to prevent an outbreak. Critical mass has been reached. The outbreak is now self-sustaining and can grow and spread across the population. A single case no longer just triggers a handful more. Once one of these outbreaks starts, it’s very difficult to stop, at least until the level of vaccination has reached the point where the virus no longer can spread from host to host fast enough to sustain the epidemic.
Understanding the mathematics behind this is more than academic. It explains how a massive outbreak can creep up on the population. As the level of immunization drops, there may not be a dramatic increase in cases until it suddenly spikes.
This entry was posted on Saturday, September 8th, 2012 at 1:28 pm and is filed under Bad Science, Good Science, Nuclear, Quackery. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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September 8th, 2012 at 5:24 pm
While the point is well taken and the analogy valid, I’d rather you hadn’t made the parallel with disease using nuclear reactors, as the press against them is bad enough as it is.
Not that I can think of a better one….
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September 9th, 2012 at 1:40 am
Pretty sure I commented on here under another name at some point, love the blog, was a bit worried when the site went down due to payment issues, etc, etc
Anyway, it still boggles the mind that in this day and age, after hundreds of years of solid proof, vaccinations still take such a bad rep. I forgot to get my flu vaccine this year, and damn did I regret it. When I’m about to get immunized against whatever, yes there’s fear of the needle, which always makes you feel stupid after the fact, but, damn.
Seeing that a lack of vaccinations is causing all this easily avoidable trouble just makes me cringe. Same with any other complete logical disconnect, like homeopathy. Or radiophobia. Or chemtrails/911 conspiracies/etc.
It does make you worry for the species sometimes.
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September 9th, 2012 at 6:36 am
DV8: I’m still laughing as I write this. How right you are.
Buzz: you know of my radiation safety professional work and I’ve worked with a number of epidemiologists to learn the analysis of risk. I wish I had connected these two fields in the fashion you just did. Teaching radiation safety, I was always looking for a way to simply and analogously explain radiation concepts. Reversed in order, your analogy would have been helpful. Kudos!
I’m not a fan of government involvement in a lot of things, but I lose a little rationality with this issue and think the gov should arrest anti-vaccination idiots for child abuse (and maybe adult abuse).
DV8 – still laughing! You nailed me with that one. Thanks.
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September 9th, 2012 at 9:38 am
I would say that an important driver of the anti-vaccination movement is that a child death from infectious disease, while tragic, is not a life-long burden on its family in the way that an autistic child often is. It’s the same logic behind landmines being designed to maim (which ties up the enemy’s medical resources) rather than to kill outright.
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September 10th, 2012 at 12:13 am
DV82XL said:
But… it’s a valid comparison just in terms of the math.
Critical functions are sometimes found in anything that spreads, fission or disease. It has a tipping point that can sneak up on you and surge all at once. Same with other natural states like where an invasive species reaches a certain threshold for having a viable breeding population and becomes unstoppable.
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September 10th, 2012 at 10:32 pm
youtube.com/watch?v=wHs0vM3gRTA
you can thank RANDI
now for some SYMBOLIC TWO-DIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS!
on the TIMELINE
0 min 33 sec – Randi in the RED SHIRT – signifying the *bl..dy deed* that is about to happen
1min 18 sec – Banachek talks about respect for the claimant and then they mock “these kind” of people in the final part
3 min 20 sec – the test of the power bracelet that increases a person’s energy and balance. Notice our challenge is all about POWER & BALANCE, proving the existence of a HIGHER POWER
5 min 15 sec TEST BEGINS. Skeptics one by one stand in CRUCIFIXION POSE
1 hr 10 min 21 sec Test is ended in failure
1 hr 10 min 30 sec request is made to make change in the PROTOCOL
1 hr 10 min 51 sec Applause is made by all those who wanted him to fail from the very beginning
1 hr 25 min 39 sec Now they talk about the Nightline clip that was filmed in Manhattan, also the scene of the 9/11 event
1hr 28 min 42 sec – They talk about make-shift tests. They think that because no one can win the prize that psychic phenomena does not exist
1 hr 29 min 45 sec Banachek says “the majority of *these* people.’” A contemptuous reference that occurs repeatedly
1 hr 31 min 53 sec The reference to envelopes. Remember the 911 in Angel’s envelope!
1 hr 37 min 11 sec Swiss says he is not worried about a paranormal event happening. Little does he know what is actually taking place
1 hr 39 min 50 sec The mocking of SPIRITS!
1 hr 40 min 27 sec Reference made to the TERROR of witnessing a supernatural event, i.e, the blood leaving the face
1 hr 41 min 15 sec Reference to “these people”
1 hr 41 min 40 sec Belief in the supernatural is claimed to be a psychological defence mechanism to cope with reality. Swiss talks about how desperate the psychics become when debunked. Little does he know what is happening to the skeptics!
1 hr 42 min 11 sec WHEN PROPHECY SUCCEEDS! KABOOM
___________
youtube.com/watch?v=gHbYJfwFgOU
which WORLD-VIEW will not exist, sh*thead?
______________
5000 whining atheists vs the Great Prophet
how the divine pen of Michel N. crushed the international atheist movement
skeps.org/5000-whining-atheists-vs-the-great-prophet-t644.html
youtube.com/watch?v=s3lwG4MytSI
one applicant right here…
get the POINT, Randi….
for lies on top of lies
youtube.com/watch?v=bbmXpNEFipE
do you think you can threaten my right to FREE SPEECH?
what if I told you that I am not who you think I am….
Not Dennis Markuze – but a FAN!
youtube.com/watch?v=nvatDdOWcLw&lc
you’re not the center of the universe!
youtube.com/watch?v=3yRpSNIOwA4
a dishonest liar
____
youtube.com/watch?v=ruQFh_TkPto
WHINE WHINE WHINE
______________
——-
BRING IT ON!
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