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	<title>Comments on: The Swine Flu:  Time to Panic?  Not really.</title>
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	<link>http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/</link>
	<description>Bad Science And Scary Science</description>
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		<title>By: morganism</title>
		<link>http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/comment-page-2/#comment-16754</link>
		<dc:creator>morganism</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2009 18:46:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://depletedcranium.com/?p=2450#comment-16754</guid>
		<description>it looks like since most of the deaths in Mexico have been in 25-50 year olds, that the lethality of this strain, at this time, is a cytokine storm, not the standard pnuemonia. FluTrackers article says that those over 50 were probably exposed to a version of this in their youth, and have some inherent resistance.

CYTOKINE STORM and the INFLUENZA PANDEMIC
Angela L. Petrosino, MPH, CHES (Northwest Ohio Consortium for Public Health)
A cytokine storm is the systemic expression of a healthy and vigorous immune system resulting in the release of more than 150 inflammatory mediators (cytokines, oxygen free radicals, and coagulation factors). Both pro-inflammatory cytokines (such as Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha, InterLeukin-1, and InterLeukin-6) and anti-inflammatory cytokines (such as interleukin 10, and interleukin 1 receptor antagonist) are elevated in the serum, and the fierce and often lethal interplay of these cytokines is referred to as a &quot;Cytokine Storm&quot;. The primary contributors to the cytokine storm are TNF-a (Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha) and IL-6 (Interleukin-6). The cytokine storm is an inappropriate (exaggerated) immune response that is caused by rapidly proliferating and highly activated T-cells or natural killer (NK) cells. These cells are themselves activated by infected macrophages. The cytokine storm must be treated and suppressed or lethality can result.

from website http://www.cytokinestorm.com/
this was for Avian flu, not the Human/pig version.
there are some decent graphics on this site, and some treatment recommendations, though the weirdos on FluTracker article of a doc in Japan is using Curcumin and another herb.
also see wikip

Treating the Cytokine Storm of Avian Influenza, the Premise of this Website:
1. Bird flu patients die from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) caused by the cytokine storm, and not directly from the virus. Historic survival in ARDS is 60%-85%; with bird flu-associated ARDS it is 43%.
2. Neuraminidase inhibitors (i.e. Tamiflu, Relenza) are not clinically proven effective for bird flu patients and cannot address the lethal cytokine storm associated with the infection.
3. The treatment to prevent or stop the autoimmune reaction (cytokine storm) is commercially available by prescription, but is not currently being recommended by the World Health Organization to treat these patients.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>it looks like since most of the deaths in Mexico have been in 25-50 year olds, that the lethality of this strain, at this time, is a cytokine storm, not the standard pnuemonia. FluTrackers article says that those over 50 were probably exposed to a version of this in their youth, and have some inherent resistance.</p>
<p>CYTOKINE STORM and the INFLUENZA PANDEMIC<br />
Angela L. Petrosino, MPH, CHES (Northwest Ohio Consortium for Public Health)<br />
A cytokine storm is the systemic expression of a healthy and vigorous immune system resulting in the release of more than 150 inflammatory mediators (cytokines, oxygen free radicals, and coagulation factors). Both pro-inflammatory cytokines (such as Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha, InterLeukin-1, and InterLeukin-6) and anti-inflammatory cytokines (such as interleukin 10, and interleukin 1 receptor antagonist) are elevated in the serum, and the fierce and often lethal interplay of these cytokines is referred to as a &#8220;Cytokine Storm&#8221;. The primary contributors to the cytokine storm are TNF-a (Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha) and IL-6 (Interleukin-6). The cytokine storm is an inappropriate (exaggerated) immune response that is caused by rapidly proliferating and highly activated T-cells or natural killer (NK) cells. These cells are themselves activated by infected macrophages. The cytokine storm must be treated and suppressed or lethality can result.</p>
<p>from website <a href="http://www.cytokinestorm.com/" rel="nofollow">http://www.cytokinestorm.com/</a><br />
this was for Avian flu, not the Human/pig version.<br />
there are some decent graphics on this site, and some treatment recommendations, though the weirdos on FluTracker article of a doc in Japan is using Curcumin and another herb.<br />
also see wikip</p>
<p>Treating the Cytokine Storm of Avian Influenza, the Premise of this Website:<br />
1. Bird flu patients die from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) caused by the cytokine storm, and not directly from the virus. Historic survival in ARDS is 60%-85%; with bird flu-associated ARDS it is 43%.<br />
2. Neuraminidase inhibitors (i.e. Tamiflu, Relenza) are not clinically proven effective for bird flu patients and cannot address the lethal cytokine storm associated with the infection.<br />
3. The treatment to prevent or stop the autoimmune reaction (cytokine storm) is commercially available by prescription, but is not currently being recommended by the World Health Organization to treat these patients.</p>
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		<title>By: DV82XL</title>
		<link>http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/comment-page-2/#comment-16737</link>
		<dc:creator>DV82XL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 May 2009 04:00:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://depletedcranium.com/?p=2450#comment-16737</guid>
		<description>[quote comment=&quot;16734&quot;] want to see really wonked viral stuff, try http://www.recombinomics.com/[/quote]


Viral recombination techniques are generally well recognized tools in the study of viral infections and the development of medications and vaccines. I don&#039;t know too much about this company, but I will hold them to the same standards I do for anyone working in these fields. I will expect to see peer-reviewed papers in mainstream journals, experiments that are well designed, properly interpreted, and REPEATABLE. If their product comes to market, I will expect it to have passed testing with standard protocols, and proper attention to the legal requierments.

Nobody gets a free ride.</description>
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<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href="http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/#comment-16734"><b>morganism said:</b></a></p>
<blockquote cite="http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/#comment-16734"><p>
 want to see really wonked viral stuff, try <a href="http://www.recombinomics.com/" rel="nofollow">http://www.recombinomics.com/</a></p>
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<p>Viral recombination techniques are generally well recognized tools in the study of viral infections and the development of medications and vaccines. I don&#8217;t know too much about this company, but I will hold them to the same standards I do for anyone working in these fields. I will expect to see peer-reviewed papers in mainstream journals, experiments that are well designed, properly interpreted, and REPEATABLE. If their product comes to market, I will expect it to have passed testing with standard protocols, and proper attention to the legal requierments.</p>
<p>Nobody gets a free ride.</p>
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		<title>By: morganism</title>
		<link>http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/comment-page-1/#comment-16734</link>
		<dc:creator>morganism</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2009 23:32:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://depletedcranium.com/?p=2450#comment-16734</guid>
		<description>agree. vendor sponsored studies have been shown to be biased, and negative results don&#039;t get published.
the do have impact though. look at the results of the chocolate studies, really pushed up sales!

thought they were measuring VAS loads in that one though......

actually came to this by watching the reservetol studies, and it appeared that the elderberry was more effacious and economical.

again, it seems to work well prophylacticy, unlike echinacea. or my mums control measures.

want to see really wonked viral stuff, try http://www.recombinomics.com/</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>agree. vendor sponsored studies have been shown to be biased, and negative results don&#8217;t get published.<br />
the do have impact though. look at the results of the chocolate studies, really pushed up sales!</p>
<p>thought they were measuring VAS loads in that one though&#8230;&#8230;</p>
<p>actually came to this by watching the reservetol studies, and it appeared that the elderberry was more effacious and economical.</p>
<p>again, it seems to work well prophylacticy, unlike echinacea. or my mums control measures.</p>
<p>want to see really wonked viral stuff, try <a href="http://www.recombinomics.com/" rel="nofollow">http://www.recombinomics.com/</a></p>
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		<title>By: DV82XL</title>
		<link>http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/comment-page-1/#comment-16733</link>
		<dc:creator>DV82XL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2009 22:53:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://depletedcranium.com/?p=2450#comment-16733</guid>
		<description>[quote comment=&quot;16732&quot;]everything you wanted to know about elderberry
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1549[/quote]

From the link:

&lt;i&gt;&quot;Patients were also allowed to take a “rescue medication” (oral paracetamol and/or a dose-metered nasal spray [Otrivin®, Novartis, Basel, Switzerland]) if necessary during the study. The primary study outcomes included visual analogue scores (VAS) for aches and pains, frequency of coughing, quality of sleep, mucus discharge in the respiratory tract, and nasal congestion. The VAS used a 10-point rating scale with 0 = no improvement and 10 = pronounced improvement. A self-evaluation score measuring overall personal well-being was also completed. Patients scored their symptoms on diary cards at baseline, four times a day during treatment, and twice daily for 5 days after the treatment had finished.&lt;/i&gt;

Without looking any closer at this &#039;study&#039; one can see a huge design flaw in that the patients were permitted the use of symptom suppressing medication &lt;i&gt;ad lib&lt;/I&gt; yet the researchers chose to evaluate the effectiveness of the medication in question by scoring those same symptoms by visual means only. 

I&#039;m not saying that this stuff has no value, but this study shouldn&#039;t convince anyone for both the above and following reasons:

The study was funded by manufacturer of this product. If one of the regular criticisms of Big Pharma is that their science is being corrupted by profit concerns, why are the alternative medicine businesses not?

The study was very small, and it was not done in a controlled environment like a clinic. You cannot see what else the subjects are up to if they are wandering about in public.

Dosages were set by age not weight as is standard practice in good clinical trials.

There are other errors but this will do.</description>
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<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href="http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/#comment-16732"><b>morganism said:</b></a></p>
<blockquote cite="http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/#comment-16732"><p>
everything you wanted to know about elderberry<br />
<a href="http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1549" rel="nofollow">http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1549</a></p>
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<p>From the link:</p>
<p><i>&#8220;Patients were also allowed to take a “rescue medication” (oral paracetamol and/or a dose-metered nasal spray [Otrivin®, Novartis, Basel, Switzerland]) if necessary during the study. The primary study outcomes included visual analogue scores (VAS) for aches and pains, frequency of coughing, quality of sleep, mucus discharge in the respiratory tract, and nasal congestion. The VAS used a 10-point rating scale with 0 = no improvement and 10 = pronounced improvement. A self-evaluation score measuring overall personal well-being was also completed. Patients scored their symptoms on diary cards at baseline, four times a day during treatment, and twice daily for 5 days after the treatment had finished.</i></p>
<p>Without looking any closer at this &#8217;study&#8217; one can see a huge design flaw in that the patients were permitted the use of symptom suppressing medication <i>ad lib</i> yet the researchers chose to evaluate the effectiveness of the medication in question by scoring those same symptoms by visual means only. </p>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying that this stuff has no value, but this study shouldn&#8217;t convince anyone for both the above and following reasons:</p>
<p>The study was funded by manufacturer of this product. If one of the regular criticisms of Big Pharma is that their science is being corrupted by profit concerns, why are the alternative medicine businesses not?</p>
<p>The study was very small, and it was not done in a controlled environment like a clinic. You cannot see what else the subjects are up to if they are wandering about in public.</p>
<p>Dosages were set by age not weight as is standard practice in good clinical trials.</p>
<p>There are other errors but this will do.</p>
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		<title>By: morganism</title>
		<link>http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/comment-page-1/#comment-16732</link>
		<dc:creator>morganism</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2009 22:24:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://depletedcranium.com/?p=2450#comment-16732</guid>
		<description>everything you wanted to know about elderberry
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1549</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>everything you wanted to know about elderberry<br />
<a href="http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1549" rel="nofollow">http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1549</a></p>
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		<title>By: DV82XL</title>
		<link>http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/comment-page-1/#comment-16731</link>
		<dc:creator>DV82XL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2009 22:17:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://depletedcranium.com/?p=2450#comment-16731</guid>
		<description>[quote comment=&quot;16730&quot;]absolutely no question that i can convince you of anything, DV8, have never seen anyone convince you of anything on this site, just sharing some info.

i do appreciate the excellent physics and logic applied to problems here. just figured this was not going to be found by any of the regulars.

whats the chaser for Lysol ?[/quote]

Oh, I have had my mind changed here on several occasions, most often when I realize that someone I have been having an exchange with is a total nutbar, after thinking they had something useful to contribute, and in at least three cases the converse happened, and someone I thought was an idiot turned out not to be.

In your case I wouldn&#039;t hold my breath for the latter to happen.</description>
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<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href="http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/#comment-16730"><b>morganism said:</b></a></p>
<blockquote cite="http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/#comment-16730"><p>
absolutely no question that i can convince you of anything, DV8, have never seen anyone convince you of anything on this site, just sharing some info.</p>
<p>i do appreciate the excellent physics and logic applied to problems here. just figured this was not going to be found by any of the regulars.</p>
<p>whats the chaser for Lysol ?</p>
</blockquote>
</div>
<p>Oh, I have had my mind changed here on several occasions, most often when I realize that someone I have been having an exchange with is a total nutbar, after thinking they had something useful to contribute, and in at least three cases the converse happened, and someone I thought was an idiot turned out not to be.</p>
<p>In your case I wouldn&#8217;t hold my breath for the latter to happen.</p>
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		<title>By: morganism</title>
		<link>http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/comment-page-1/#comment-16730</link>
		<dc:creator>morganism</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2009 22:07:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://depletedcranium.com/?p=2450#comment-16730</guid>
		<description>absolutely no question that i can convince you of anything, DV8, have never seen anyone convince you of anything on this site, just sharing some info.

i do appreciate the excellent physics and logic applied to problems here. just figured this was not going to be found by any of the regulars.

whats the chaser for Lysol ?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>absolutely no question that i can convince you of anything, DV8, have never seen anyone convince you of anything on this site, just sharing some info.</p>
<p>i do appreciate the excellent physics and logic applied to problems here. just figured this was not going to be found by any of the regulars.</p>
<p>whats the chaser for Lysol ?</p>
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		<title>By: DV82XL</title>
		<link>http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/comment-page-1/#comment-16729</link>
		<dc:creator>DV82XL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2009 22:01:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://depletedcranium.com/?p=2450#comment-16729</guid>
		<description>[quote comment=&quot;16727&quot;]the elderberry blurb came from an article on EurekaAlert, a published study on killing flu virus on used facemasks. it is supposed that they will be in heavy demand in a pandemic..[/quote]

By that logic Lysol would make an excellent antibiotic for internal use, since it kills bacteria on contact. 

Please go drink some at once.

You still haven&#039;t answered my question - why come here with this sort of B.S.? Do you imagine that anything you say will convince us that any of this is of value.?</description>
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<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href="http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/#comment-16727"><b>Morgan Knapp said:</b></a></p>
<blockquote cite="http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/#comment-16727"><p>
the elderberry blurb came from an article on EurekaAlert, a published study on killing flu virus on used facemasks. it is supposed that they will be in heavy demand in a pandemic..</p>
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<p>By that logic Lysol would make an excellent antibiotic for internal use, since it kills bacteria on contact. </p>
<p>Please go drink some at once.</p>
<p>You still haven&#8217;t answered my question &#8211; why come here with this sort of B.S.? Do you imagine that anything you say will convince us that any of this is of value.?</p>
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		<title>By: DV82XL</title>
		<link>http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/comment-page-1/#comment-16728</link>
		<dc:creator>DV82XL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2009 21:52:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://depletedcranium.com/?p=2450#comment-16728</guid>
		<description>[quote comment=&quot;16726&quot;]Elderberry syrup possibly.  Wikipedia mentions a controlled study where it is effective against flu, but suspiciously, the article has &lt;i&gt;Citation Needed&lt;/i&gt; all over it.[/quote]

Well if &lt;i&gt;Wikipedia&lt;/i&gt; says so (without citations) then it &lt;i&gt;must&lt;/i&gt; be true.[/sarcasm]</description>
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<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href="http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/#comment-16726"><b>Paul Studier said:</b></a></p>
<blockquote cite="http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/#comment-16726"><p>
Elderberry syrup possibly.  Wikipedia mentions a controlled study where it is effective against flu, but suspiciously, the article has <i>Citation Needed</i> all over it.</p>
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<p>Well if <i>Wikipedia</i> says so (without citations) then it <i>must</i> be true.[/sarcasm]</p>
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		<title>By: Morgan Knapp</title>
		<link>http://depletedcranium.com/the-swine-flu-time-to-panic-not-really/comment-page-1/#comment-16727</link>
		<dc:creator>Morgan Knapp</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 May 2009 21:48:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://depletedcranium.com/?p=2450#comment-16727</guid>
		<description>Absolutely expect a heap of scorn for this.

as for the med advice, it may be hard to get Tami, since even though it is being stockpiled in major metro areas, it has a quick shelf life (supposedly), and it would be nice to be able to have SOMETHING that may work to help slow the infection in a household member contacts an avian type flu.

the elderberry blurb came from an article on EurekaAlert, a published study on killing flu virus on used facemasks. it is supposed that they will be in heavy demand in a pandemic.

the colloidal silver trick came from an infection of MRSA, couldn&#039;t get rid of it any other way.
low toxicity and able to use it on skin that is is contact with clothing without staining. furry parts and mucous membranes without skin reactions. YMMV.

this is an excellent source for reflections on scientific conservatism, i try to read it regularly.

this may be another strain that mutates to a less deadly form, but WHO says it expects to infect 2 billion people. that if 1/3 of the population of the planet actually does get it, i would consider it a big deal.

check out the freakiness on the FluTrackers forums, especially the homeopath stuff.
is amusing, but as our cellular structure has been interacting with some of these compounds for a long time, i wouldn&#039;t write off the low tech stuff.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Absolutely expect a heap of scorn for this.</p>
<p>as for the med advice, it may be hard to get Tami, since even though it is being stockpiled in major metro areas, it has a quick shelf life (supposedly), and it would be nice to be able to have SOMETHING that may work to help slow the infection in a household member contacts an avian type flu.</p>
<p>the elderberry blurb came from an article on EurekaAlert, a published study on killing flu virus on used facemasks. it is supposed that they will be in heavy demand in a pandemic.</p>
<p>the colloidal silver trick came from an infection of MRSA, couldn&#8217;t get rid of it any other way.<br />
low toxicity and able to use it on skin that is is contact with clothing without staining. furry parts and mucous membranes without skin reactions. YMMV.</p>
<p>this is an excellent source for reflections on scientific conservatism, i try to read it regularly.</p>
<p>this may be another strain that mutates to a less deadly form, but WHO says it expects to infect 2 billion people. that if 1/3 of the population of the planet actually does get it, i would consider it a big deal.</p>
<p>check out the freakiness on the FluTrackers forums, especially the homeopath stuff.<br />
is amusing, but as our cellular structure has been interacting with some of these compounds for a long time, i wouldn&#8217;t write off the low tech stuff.</p>
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