The Swine Flu: Time to Panic? Not really.
April 28th, 2009
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The big story today is that the “Swine Flu” is going to kill us all and lead to a breakdown in society, an economic crisis, bodies being burned in the streets, martial law and so on. I’m a bit sorry to say that for those who have been so eager for doomsday, this is probably going to be a big disappointment. Hundreds of cases have been reported in Mexico and now cases are confirmed in several US States as well as numerous Latin American countries. It seems that the virus originated in Mexico, as many of the cases can be linked directly to individuals who have visited the country recently.
In California, Governor Schwarzenegger has declared a state of emergency. Some reports indicate that he might resort to traveling back in time to prevent the flu from ever occurring or having his arm morph into a machine gun that shoots little capsules antibodies so that he can fight the flu directly. (Okay, just kidding about the last part).
Meanwhile, the US President is already seeking 1.5 billion dollars to fight the problem. Ever noticed how he has a tendency to ask for huge amounts of money before he even decides what it’s going to be used for or what the cost of combating a problem will actually be?
What is Swine Flu?
Swine flu gets its name from the fact that it is common in pigs and is known to cause epidemics in pig populations. The virus can also effect humans who acquire it from pigs, especially those who work on pig farms, as butchers and so on. Occasionally a strain of swine flu will mutate in a manner that allows it to be easily passed on by human-to-human contact and thus is not limited to those who come in contact with an infected pig.
To be specific, swine flu is a subtype of influenza. In this case, the virus in question is a sub-strain of type N1H1 variety of influenza A. There are three distinct varieties of flu virus, A, B and C and of those there are distinct subtypes and then individual viral genetic lines. Thus, this virus is Influenza, type: A, subtype N1H1, strain (North America 2009 Flu.) It is something of a misnomer to call it “swine flu” because thus far it has not been confirmed in any pigs, however the N1H1 subtype is the most common in pigs by far and is known for previous outbreaks of pig to human flu, so it is presumed to be of swine origins or at least a descendant of a swine-based virus.
The reality, however, is that this is now really human flu. It could also be called avian flu, as it does appear to share some of its genetics with strains associated with birds, but that could make it even more confusing.
More info on the naming of the flu strain here.
Why is this type of flu so bad?
It’s not. At least, not in most people and compared to flu outbreaks of the past, the effects of this flu strain appear to be pretty unremarkable. Some strains of the flu spread easily from person to person, while others are not so easily spread. This one appears to be one of the more easily spread strains, but it’s not as if it is drastically more contagious than anything we’ve seen before. It’s not a super-virus or any kind of thing that is orders of magnitude worse than other flu strains.
For the average person, getting the swine flu is going to mean a miserable few days, including vomiting, congestion, body aches, tiredness, mild fever and so on. A sufferer may lay in bed for a while, eat some chicken soup, drink some gingerale and then feel better within a week at the most. It can be deadly, however, but that’s generally something that one only finds in portions of the population that have badly compromised immune systems. For those who have full blown aids, are receiving heavy chemotherapy, newborns, the very old and in generally poor health, this disease could be fatal.
Of course, one must bare in mind that individuals in the affore mentioned population groups can be killed by any strain of the flu and many other diseases that are commonplace and generally not considered to be a big deal to most healthy individuals. This is not to say that it will be fatal, even to those in compromised health. The disease can be treated and if proper treatment is given early on, the probability of death will be low.
It is very important to note that news reports on the number of deaths associated this the recent flu outbreak can be very deceptive. There have been 172 confirmed cases in Mexico and 26 confirmed deaths. On the surface, such numbers would seem to indicate that the disease killed more than one in six who get it, but this is not necessarily the case. In most cases, only the most severe cases of such a disease are ever reported, and most healthy individuals who contract such a condition would just have stayed home and recovered on their own. This effect is even more pronounced in a country like Mexico, where health care may not be as avaliable as in other more industrial countries. There may very well be tens of thousands who have contracted the flu in Mexico, and just spent a couple of days taking it easy, perhaps chalking it up to a bad bottle of Tequila the night before.
There has been some speculation of further deaths, including two in the United States. However, a number of students in at least two New York City schools have tested positive for the flu and reports are that they recovering well and are not believed to be in any critical danger. This is likely to be the story for most people who might get the flu.
Is it treatable?
Yes. There is no cure for the flu, in the same way that many bacterial infections can be cured by antibiotics, but there are treatments that can inhibit the virus’s means of reproduction and when given early on have been shown to be quite effective against the flu, including the swine flu. The two that have proven to be effective in treating this strain are Oseltamivir, marketed under the trade name Tamiflu and Zanamivir, marketed under the trade name Relenza. There may be other antiviral drugs that can help, but those two are the best established as effective. It is believed that M2 inhibitors, a completely different class of antiviral drugs than oseltamivir and zanamivir may also prove effective, as they are known to be of use in other influenza A strains.
It’s definitely a relief thing to have at least two drugs that are effective against the virus, especially given that they’re quite different in their chemistry. Both oselamivir and zanamivir are types of Neuraminidase inhibitors, although they accomplish this differently. It is believed that this approach should be relatively difficult for the virus to develop a resistance to (M2 inhibitors have seen problems with resistance development), because neuraminidase is a very fundamental enzyme to how the flu works, and is vital to the process that allows the flu to invade host cells. Still, in the event that the virus does manage to develop a resistance to one of the drugs, it’s always good to have multiple weapons in one’s arsenal. It’s worth noting that due to concerns over the “Bird Flu” over the past years, a number of countries and public health agencies had already taken the precautions of stocking up on these drugs.
Beyond direct treatment of the flu, there is also symptomatic treatment. Many who die of the flu die of respiratory complications, so treatment with a ventilator or oxygen could be a life saver. Also, while antibiotics can’t help with the flu, they can be used to treat opportunistic infections that may arise due to the weakened state a flu patient is in. It is well known that those suffering from the flu may develop more serious bacterial infections. Indeed, some information indicates that bacterial infections, not the flu itself killed most of those who sucumbed to the infamous 1918 flu epidemic. This is really no surprise, the strain placed on the medical system of the time, combined with many sufferers of the flu being placed in bacteria-infested and overcrowded hospitals made further infection a major risk.
Is there a vaccine?
No, not yet. However, those vaccinated against other strains of the flu may receive some limited protection. There does not appear to be any scientific reason why this strain could not be prevented by vaccination, but the process of culturing and testing such a vaccine will take some time.
What should you do?
Don’t panic or anything. There’s no need for that, and in many cases these kind of events are only a big deal because so many people make a big deal about them. If you suspect that you might maybe possibly have the flu, but you’re otherwise fairly healthy, then don’t go calling 9-1-1 and rushing to the emergency room. Our health care system does not need the additional load of panicked people who are not in any acute danger stampeding the place.
However, if you are in a condition that has left your immune system compromised or has otherwise made you more susceptible to infection, then by all means, notify your doctor at the earliest inkling that something might be wrong, because early treatment is very important. The same should go for anyone who you might know who could be in a demographic group which is in danger. So, if your 95 year old grandmother seems to be getting the sniffles, then get her checked out, even if you’re not entirely sure it’s anything. In that case, better safe than sorry.
Oh, and for god’s sake, wash your hands, regularly. You should do that anyway. And don’t just run them under the water, either. Get them good and lathered up and then scrub them well. Germicidal hand gel may be helpful too, but it’s no substitute for a good washing.
Finally a little perspective:
This virus is a new strain for which humans do not have any previous natural immunity and no effective vaccine. It’s a strain of Influenza A that is easily transmitted from human to human. This is the same kind of scenario that was seen in outbreaks in 1968, 1976, 1998, 2007 and on other occasions. Just like now, there were several outbreaks around the world.
And yet… the world continues to exist.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 28th, 2009 at 9:28 pm and is filed under Bad Science, Good Science, History, Misc, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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April 29th, 2009 at 12:27 am
Hope you don’t mind but I just forwarded this info on to some people (reference maintained). I work for a branch of emergency services and know a few people are looking into the flu.
I also added a link to a local news story saying that the WHO are disputing the death figures: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25403429-29277,00.html
Also an interesting social experiment on how long it takes an email with good news as opposed to bad fear mongering news to spread!
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April 29th, 2009 at 1:08 am
Kingbob said:
Yeah I just read something similar. There have been retractions on some of the reported “confirmed” cases in the US. Turns out in some of the cases, it was flu, but another strain that has been common this season.. not the “swine flu” and nothing severe.
It looks to me like this is a rather run-of-the-mill flu strain that has caused a few moderate outbreaks but I’m still not seeing any indication that this is the “Superbug”
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April 29th, 2009 at 1:13 am
There has been panic festering ever since the reports of the Asian bird flu being a bad strain a few years ago.
It’s just the damn flu. We all know it can kill the very weak, but like buzz said, so can any number of other things.
I guess the one thing that keeps coming up to make the flu scary is the 1918 pandemic that killed so many. I really wonder though how much of that had to do with the fact that the virus was so bad and how much had to do with the conditions of the time right after World War I and the medical system still overwhelmed with war injuries and the whole social strife of disabled vets coming home, the unsanitary conditions and packing people into hospitals, people being poorly nourished and so on.
If the same virus had struck and it had been a time of prosperity when nutrition and health was good, when sanitation was in very good conditions and when the hospitals and medical establishment were at the top of their game, would it have been so bad? I have to wonder. I think there is a lot of truth to the idea that much of the death toll can be attributed to secondary infections.
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April 29th, 2009 at 1:22 am
I think with these kind of diseases the death toll gets very badly skewed by the fact that most people don’t ever report it if they don’t have it badly. I had the flu last year, or at least I had something, if not the flu than one of the many viral infections with similar symptoms. I didn’t even bother going to the doctor. I had two sick days off work and a weekend. In Mexico I would bet this is even more common. Confirmed cases does not mean actual cases.
There was a news item during the SARS panic too that said they estimated the real infection rate at up to ten times the reported which would have made the death rate seem much more rare. It noted SARS could be misdiagnosed as moderate bronchitis.
I don’t understand the level of fear of these things. If it actually did become a super-epidemic that is one thing, but it is as if people assume it will be before it does. You can’t live your life like that. It looks like it’s just another flu strain like the ones we already see.
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April 29th, 2009 at 1:54 am
I am surprised nobody mentioned the season which is another thing that will probably temper this. At least in the Northern Hemesphere this is the exact wrong season for flu to spread badly. Flu season is the winter and flu increases nearly ten fold even though it can happen at any time in the year. It is believed to be due to dry air from cold temperatures and heating etc. The fact that this is late April with the whole summer ahead means this is a bad time for flu to spread.
It might be different in the Southern Hemisphere, but how many people live far enough south in the Southern hemisphere to actually get acute winter-like weather there? Maybe southern Australia and some of Argentina? That’s all I can think of. Does it ever get cold in South Africa?
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April 29th, 2009 at 2:08 am
The government does not love you no matter what you think and it should not surprise anyone that this is coming after all the reports of other outbreaks. They have been working on bioweapons for a long time and sars and other ones have all the makings of a dry run of the tech. They’ve been spraying a lot more in the past month. Just look up and you’ll notice the trails are starting to look a little more thick and yellowish which means they are altering their formula again. Things don’t get worse overnight it would be too obvious like that and this is why the plans are to ramp it up like you hardly notice. A bit more each day until you look around and see how bad its gotten. Look at public health and the way it has gone. The recession was no mistake either and it is all combined into what is assembling. 2012 is right around the corner and also its Obama’s last year. Obama was no coincidence. He was chosen and is of the same cut as Bush even if they pretned he’s the opposite. It was rigged from the begining. Obama works for the same organizations and the reason they chose him is because of the race-war aspects of what is going on. A black president and he is going to drive the world into the ground therefore he will inspire more racism to the point of a race war. That is only part. Obama is not even black! He’s only half black and nobody realizes that! He’s owned by the same masters as Cheney and Bush and Rummy. The brilliance is no one part of the scheme can take the world down to slavery but when combined the bio weapons, drugs in our water and drug company tactics and control of banking. Zionists, illumanati and the other subgroups and parts are very pleased with the sheep believing all they are told. When 2012 comes it will really be the end for most people and it’s amazing nobody sees that. I guess the old cultures that revealed that date were not so dumb as you think. In fact you are the dumb one to fall for this crap.
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April 29th, 2009 at 2:12 am
Gordon said:
But it’s not killing the weak, it’s killing strong, healthy people. Hence the concern.
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April 29th, 2009 at 7:53 am
JustTruthInLife, are you joking, or are you serious?
Otherwise is there a single conspiracy theory you don’t believe????
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April 29th, 2009 at 9:22 am
Soylent said:
Really? Do you have any evidence that this is actually taking down healthy people? In more than an isolated instance?
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April 29th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
To hell with 2012, I’m stocking up food and ammo for the Y10K bug. WHY IS NOBODY TALKING ABOUT THE DIRE THREAT OF Y10K?
I hope they’ll still have some COBOL programmers around, or things could get really really ugly.
Also, pig dude in the photo above is giving me a case of grand-mal heebie jeebies.
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April 29th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
I agree, it is just the flu. It is the end of the flu season. Every Spring to Summer we go through the same thing. Get over it. If we stop global warming, perhaps all of these (FLUS) will go away. There is still hope for all of us.
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April 29th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
Gordon said:
All 86 mexcians who had died of suspected swine flu by the 26th were between the ages 25 and 50. The probable mechanism is a “cytokine storm”.
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April 29th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
Soylent said:
86? Where did you get that information from? The latest I have from the CDC is that the death toll in Mexico stands at 7 confirmed, 148 possible but not confirmed.
I’m still a bit skeptical that this outbreak is anything all that much more dangerous than the run of the mill flu strains. It might be toward the more severe end of the spectrum, but there’s a lot of hot air out there.
Cytokine storm response to the point of being critical is exceedingly rare in general.
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April 29th, 2009 at 8:43 pm
drbuzz0 said:
Local swedish news, probably from AP.
Here’s the same story in the washington post from the 27th: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/26/AR2009042602827.html
“Relatively young adults, presumably among the population’s most healthy, have been the first to succumb. Sunday afternoon, Mexico placed the death toll at 86, and a Health Ministry official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said all the dead were ages 25 to 50.”
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April 29th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
(Note: I did accurately dropped in a “suspected” before swine flu in the post you replied to).
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April 29th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
The World Health Organization has raised the pandemic alert level for the swine flu to five out of six. This ain’t over yet.
However, this doesn’t mean we should run for the hills, it’s rather clear from the SARS outbreak a few years ago, that there is a good system in place to control this sort of thing, and put out the fire as it where, before it gets out of hand.
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April 29th, 2009 at 9:35 pm
DV82XL said:
This is just the panic level of the doctors. The media has picked up on this, and is using it for their usual fear-mongering purposes.
Indeed, no need to run for the hills. However, the WHO has already said they have lost control of the situation:
http://www.cleveland.com/nation/index.ssf/2009/04/who_on_flu_outbreak_containmen.html
(and many others).
In fact, they probably never were in control. SARS was probably an easier job, given that a large percentage of people who picked up the virus got sick enough to require hospitalization, and the quarantine that comes with that. With flu, almost everyone is going to make their own recovery — while passing on the virus. “The gift that keeps on giving.”
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April 30th, 2009 at 8:51 am
OK I’m confused now….
How many people has this virus really killed?
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April 30th, 2009 at 10:10 am
This all looks terribly premature to me. Flu epidemics always emerge in full force in the fall. The 1918 there was an outbreak of Spanish Influenza in the spring, but he epidemic quieted down until the beginning of the fall. The number of cases and the death totals in the United States increased dramatically in October 1918. I expect that the same pattern will hold this year.
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April 30th, 2009 at 11:16 am
Charles Barton said:
So… we’re all ****ed?
Sounds like the perfect time to panic to me….
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April 30th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Anonymous said:
No we are not. This is 2009 not 1918, and we have a good idea what we are dealing with. We also have tools that they didn’t have back then, including antivirals, and better communications. The public is somewhat more sophisticated and better informed than in the past as well, and is more likely to cooperate, not the least of which because they can be kept informed.
This is not a trivial threat, but we have a good chance of stopping it before there is a mass slaughter.
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April 30th, 2009 at 3:01 pm
DV82XL said:
In the event that this flu strain turns out to be as bad as the 1918 strain (which I still doubt) we’re still not going to have a 1918-like death toll. For one thing, we don’t have our hospitals overflowing with World War I veterans who are poor and disfigured (the Iraq and Afgahn military actions aside.. those are nothing like the strife that was seen in WWI veterans by the millions) and we have antivirals, better management systems and antibiotics to fight bacterial infections.
What I’ve read about the 1918 flu was that the severity had less to do with the severity of the strain and more to do with the extremely poor response by authorities to treat it.
Anonymous said:
There’s no such thing as the perfect time to panic. The worse things are, the worse panic makes them.
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April 30th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
The 1918 flu kill many within hours of getting sick. There was a healthy nurse who reported to work, and before the shift was over, she was dead. It certainly would not hurt to stockpile some hand wipes or hand sanitizer, face masks and latex gloves.
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April 30th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
Paul Studier said:
What was she dead of? The flu generally kills by means of some respiratory failure. It’s hard to imagine one’s lungs going from fine to congested enough to kill a healthy person in such a time period.
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April 30th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
I don’t have that book anymore, but from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu ,
The influenza strain was unusual in that this pandemic killed many young adults and otherwise healthy victims; typical influenzas kill mostly infants (aged 0–2 years), the elderly, and the immunocompromised. Another oddity was that this influenza outbreak was widespread in summer and fall (in the Northern Hemisphere). Typically, influenza is worse in the winter months.[citation needed]
People without symptoms could be stricken suddenly and within hours be too weak to walk; many died the next day. Symptoms included a blue tint to the face and coughing up blood caused by severe obstruction of the lungs. In some cases, the virus caused an uncontrollable hemorrhaging that filled the lungs, and patients drowned in their body fluids (pneumonia). In others, the flu caused frequent loss of bowel control and the victim would die from losing critical intestinal lining and blood loss.[citation needed]
In fast-progressing cases, mortality was primarily from pneumonia, by virus-induced consolidation. Slower-progressing cases featured secondary bacterial pneumonias, and there may have been neural involvement that led to mental disorders in a minority of cases. Some deaths resulted from malnourishment and even animal attacks in overwhelmed communities.[citation needed]
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April 30th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
drbuzz0 said:
Younger people can develop something called “Cytokine Storm” with a case of the flu. This is where a positive feedback loop causes a healthy immune system to go crazy and develop too many immune cells and clotting factors, which in turn can cause the lungs to flood with fibrinogen and other materials (pneumonia), causing repirations to cease. This can come on like a bad histamine allergy attack, and you can die in a matter of hours after exposure to the virus.
It is thought that those that have been exposed to other strains of the flu may have some protection against this syndrome, which is why it seems to happen mostly to the young
However those who are already weak usually die either from dehydration due to vomiting and diarrhea, or hyperthermia (extremely high fever).
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May 1st, 2009 at 10:54 am
DV82XL said:
Hahahaha. Hahaha.
Ha.
You kill me.
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May 1st, 2009 at 1:14 pm
[Other] Matthew said:
Than they were in 1918. Please don’t quote out of context
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May 1st, 2009 at 7:48 pm
Latest News:
Scientists from the Gen-Technolgy giant Monsanto have succeeded in combining the genes of the swine-flu virus with the virus from the avian flu.
The resulting hybrid virus is apparently (according to a company spokesperson) not contagious for humans, but has unexpected and far reaching effects in infected pigs.
See the top secret photo of the infected pigs in the attached link:
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/pigs.jpg
A speaker of the secretary of homeland security maintains there is no danger. According to the department of homeland security, islamic terrorists have, for religious reasons, little experience with the genus sus scrofa domestica. Therefore there is little danger that they will use this scientific discovery to train those animals for hard to defend aerial suicide attacks on US targets.
The NRC is still investigating if the crash of such a pig on a nuclear power plant will cause a breach of the containment structure. Definite results are expected at the latest by 2029.
Greenpeace claims that there exists no way to defend nuclear power plants against flying pigs, as radar systems require metal content in flying objects.
According to Harvey Wasserman, a nuclear expert:
The lard contained in pigs will lubricate subatomic radioactive particles, like neutrons, electrons and protons, allowing them to to reach unprecedented velocities.
A pig crash on a nuclear power plant or even spent nuclear fuel will therefore cause widespread radioactive contamination of the north american continent. The numbers of deaths will exceed the entire human population of the planet in as little as 200 years.
Greenpeace therefore demands the immediate destruction and dismantlement of all viruses, genes, nuclear powerplants and pigs.
Or at least amalgam tooth fillings for infected pigs to make them radar detectable.
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May 1st, 2009 at 7:58 pm
KLA said:
Oh u.
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May 2nd, 2009 at 2:08 pm
I’m just worried about what the response to this will be if the WHO raises to phase 6.
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May 2nd, 2009 at 6:01 pm
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2009/04/29/Swine-Flu.aspx
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May 3rd, 2009 at 7:01 pm
http://current.com/items/90013066_did-the-japanese-know-something-was-coming.htm
…
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May 3rd, 2009 at 7:14 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBeKB7aKzOs&fmt=18
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May 3rd, 2009 at 11:56 pm
I find it odd that this isn’t put into the perspective against the “regular” flu which probably kills at least several hundred people every week globally. Sure a new flu strain ought to be of concern but so far this is only a small blip on the radar screen as far as the flu is concerned.
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May 5th, 2009 at 3:36 am
Who or what is responsible for turning the media into a fear machine?
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May 5th, 2009 at 5:05 am
DV82XL said:
**** may lose its smell with time but I still wouldn’t eat it.
Also, quoting out of context is allowed when it’s funny.
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May 9th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
if you want to keep up with the flu movement and public health workers responses check
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/
also the Japanese found that elderberry syrup will keep viruses from reproducing, but not exactlly kill it.
less toxic to the system than Tamiflu, and LOTS fewer side effects. (heard that it had caused at least 2 suicides, and lots of disorintation) (hearsay)
I would suggest getting some from Wellness, and pick up a bottle of colloidal silver from them also.
DON’T take silver internally for more than 10 days, but is great for getting rid of MRSA on the epidermis.
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May 9th, 2009 at 5:02 pm
Morganism said:
Where do you get off giving medical advice in public? Why on earth do you think a bad science blog is a place to suggest rubbish like elderberry syrup and colloidal silver to treat the flu? Have you read anything written in these pages that would suggest that these suggestions would elicit anything but scorn?
Inquiring minds want to know.
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May 9th, 2009 at 5:35 pm
Elderberry syrup possibly. Wikipedia mentions a controlled study where it is effective against flu, but suspiciously, the article has Citation Needed all over it.
Colloidal silver will turn your skin blue or gray, and I have found no evidence for its usefulness.
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May 9th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
Absolutely expect a heap of scorn for this.
as for the med advice, it may be hard to get Tami, since even though it is being stockpiled in major metro areas, it has a quick shelf life (supposedly), and it would be nice to be able to have SOMETHING that may work to help slow the infection in a household member contacts an avian type flu.
the elderberry blurb came from an article on EurekaAlert, a published study on killing flu virus on used facemasks. it is supposed that they will be in heavy demand in a pandemic.
the colloidal silver trick came from an infection of MRSA, couldn’t get rid of it any other way.
low toxicity and able to use it on skin that is is contact with clothing without staining. furry parts and mucous membranes without skin reactions. YMMV.
this is an excellent source for reflections on scientific conservatism, i try to read it regularly.
this may be another strain that mutates to a less deadly form, but WHO says it expects to infect 2 billion people. that if 1/3 of the population of the planet actually does get it, i would consider it a big deal.
check out the freakiness on the FluTrackers forums, especially the homeopath stuff.
is amusing, but as our cellular structure has been interacting with some of these compounds for a long time, i wouldn’t write off the low tech stuff.
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May 9th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
Paul Studier said:
Well if Wikipedia says so (without citations) then it must be true.[/sarcasm]
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May 9th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
Morgan Knapp said:
By that logic Lysol would make an excellent antibiotic for internal use, since it kills bacteria on contact.
Please go drink some at once.
You still haven’t answered my question – why come here with this sort of B.S.? Do you imagine that anything you say will convince us that any of this is of value.?
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May 9th, 2009 at 6:07 pm
absolutely no question that i can convince you of anything, DV8, have never seen anyone convince you of anything on this site, just sharing some info.
i do appreciate the excellent physics and logic applied to problems here. just figured this was not going to be found by any of the regulars.
whats the chaser for Lysol ?
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May 9th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
morganism said:
Oh, I have had my mind changed here on several occasions, most often when I realize that someone I have been having an exchange with is a total nutbar, after thinking they had something useful to contribute, and in at least three cases the converse happened, and someone I thought was an idiot turned out not to be.
In your case I wouldn’t hold my breath for the latter to happen.
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May 9th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
everything you wanted to know about elderberry
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1549
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May 9th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
morganism said:
From the link:
“Patients were also allowed to take a “rescue medication” (oral paracetamol and/or a dose-metered nasal spray [Otrivin®, Novartis, Basel, Switzerland]) if necessary during the study. The primary study outcomes included visual analogue scores (VAS) for aches and pains, frequency of coughing, quality of sleep, mucus discharge in the respiratory tract, and nasal congestion. The VAS used a 10-point rating scale with 0 = no improvement and 10 = pronounced improvement. A self-evaluation score measuring overall personal well-being was also completed. Patients scored their symptoms on diary cards at baseline, four times a day during treatment, and twice daily for 5 days after the treatment had finished.
Without looking any closer at this ’study’ one can see a huge design flaw in that the patients were permitted the use of symptom suppressing medication ad lib yet the researchers chose to evaluate the effectiveness of the medication in question by scoring those same symptoms by visual means only.
I’m not saying that this stuff has no value, but this study shouldn’t convince anyone for both the above and following reasons:
The study was funded by manufacturer of this product. If one of the regular criticisms of Big Pharma is that their science is being corrupted by profit concerns, why are the alternative medicine businesses not?
The study was very small, and it was not done in a controlled environment like a clinic. You cannot see what else the subjects are up to if they are wandering about in public.
Dosages were set by age not weight as is standard practice in good clinical trials.
There are other errors but this will do.
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May 9th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
agree. vendor sponsored studies have been shown to be biased, and negative results don’t get published.
the do have impact though. look at the results of the chocolate studies, really pushed up sales!
thought they were measuring VAS loads in that one though……
actually came to this by watching the reservetol studies, and it appeared that the elderberry was more effacious and economical.
again, it seems to work well prophylacticy, unlike echinacea. or my mums control measures.
want to see really wonked viral stuff, try http://www.recombinomics.com/
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May 10th, 2009 at 12:00 am
morganism said:
Viral recombination techniques are generally well recognized tools in the study of viral infections and the development of medications and vaccines. I don’t know too much about this company, but I will hold them to the same standards I do for anyone working in these fields. I will expect to see peer-reviewed papers in mainstream journals, experiments that are well designed, properly interpreted, and REPEATABLE. If their product comes to market, I will expect it to have passed testing with standard protocols, and proper attention to the legal requierments.
Nobody gets a free ride.
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May 11th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
it looks like since most of the deaths in Mexico have been in 25-50 year olds, that the lethality of this strain, at this time, is a cytokine storm, not the standard pnuemonia. FluTrackers article says that those over 50 were probably exposed to a version of this in their youth, and have some inherent resistance.
CYTOKINE STORM and the INFLUENZA PANDEMIC
Angela L. Petrosino, MPH, CHES (Northwest Ohio Consortium for Public Health)
A cytokine storm is the systemic expression of a healthy and vigorous immune system resulting in the release of more than 150 inflammatory mediators (cytokines, oxygen free radicals, and coagulation factors). Both pro-inflammatory cytokines (such as Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha, InterLeukin-1, and InterLeukin-6) and anti-inflammatory cytokines (such as interleukin 10, and interleukin 1 receptor antagonist) are elevated in the serum, and the fierce and often lethal interplay of these cytokines is referred to as a “Cytokine Storm”. The primary contributors to the cytokine storm are TNF-a (Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha) and IL-6 (Interleukin-6). The cytokine storm is an inappropriate (exaggerated) immune response that is caused by rapidly proliferating and highly activated T-cells or natural killer (NK) cells. These cells are themselves activated by infected macrophages. The cytokine storm must be treated and suppressed or lethality can result.
from website http://www.cytokinestorm.com/
this was for Avian flu, not the Human/pig version.
there are some decent graphics on this site, and some treatment recommendations, though the weirdos on FluTracker article of a doc in Japan is using Curcumin and another herb.
also see wikip
Treating the Cytokine Storm of Avian Influenza, the Premise of this Website:
1. Bird flu patients die from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) caused by the cytokine storm, and not directly from the virus. Historic survival in ARDS is 60%-85%; with bird flu-associated ARDS it is 43%.
2. Neuraminidase inhibitors (i.e. Tamiflu, Relenza) are not clinically proven effective for bird flu patients and cannot address the lethal cytokine storm associated with the infection.
3. The treatment to prevent or stop the autoimmune reaction (cytokine storm) is commercially available by prescription, but is not currently being recommended by the World Health Organization to treat these patients.
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