Swine Flu Overhyped?
May 12th, 2009
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As a follow up to an earlier post
Overhyped? I’d say so.
Flu overhyped? Some say officials ‘cried swine’
CHICAGO (AP) — Did government health officials “cry swine” when they sounded the alarm on what looked like a threatening new flu?
The so-far mild swine flu outbreak has many people saying all the talk about a devastating global epidemic was just fear-mongering hype. But that’s not how public health officials see it, calling complacency the thing that keeps them up at night.
The World Health Organization added a scary-sounding warning Thursday, predicting up to 2 billion people could catch the new flu if the outbreak turns into a global epidemic.
Many blame such alarms and the breathless media coverage for creating an overreaction that disrupted many people’s lives.
Schools shut down, idling even healthy kids and forcing parents to stay home from work; colleges scaled back or even canceled graduation ceremonies; a big Cinco de Mayo celebration in Chicago was canned; face masks and hand sanitizers sold out — all because of an outbreak that seems no worse than a mild flu season.
Preliminary genetic testing of the virus strain have already shown it does not contain the genes present in the 1918 flu virus which are believed to have contributed to its deadliness. Meanwhile, even as the flu strain continues to spread (now confirmed in numerous countries worldwide), the extreme precautions and responses that were initially being taken are now being reevaluated. The CDC is now stating that closing of schools due to a student testing positive for the H1N1 strain of flu.
Countries hardest hit by the bug, such as Mexico, are taking a hit when it comes to travel and tourism, but there are some signs that this may be at least partially receding. Mexican officials initially responded to the outbreak by ordering many non-essential businesses and services to shut down, closing schools and attempting to quarantine suspected cases. Mexico has since reversed this policy and businesses and schools are now open in the country, even in areas that saw numerous cases of the H1N1 flu strain.
This reduction in extreme measures for the containment of the flu may be in part due to a realization that the H1N1 strain has made its way into the general population and any attempts at this point to isolate individual cases in the hopes of stemming the spread of the flu strain will be of only limited effectiveness. However, there is another factor involved: the more information which is gathered on the flu outbreak and the nature of this flu strain the more mundane it is turning out to be. According to the CDC, “H1N1 is not as severe as originally thought and is presenting itself more like seasonal flu.”
In addition to the confirmation that the strain does not appear to have the genetic traits believed to have contributed to the severity of flu strains in the past, as more cases are confirmed through testing, it is becoming clear that most are not as severe as had been feared. Indeed, from Nevada to New York to the United Kingdom, more and more cases are being reported and more and more cases are being classified as “mild.”
One of the things which had initially scared many is the fact that some of the deaths reported in Mexico were of young and reportedly otherwise healthy individuals. This indicated the possibility that the H1N1 strain might be especially prone to triggering a potentially fatal immune response known as a “cytokine storm.” This fear has not been born out, even as the number of cases continues to build. Exactly why this virus killed at least a few young and reportedly healthy individuals is not known but the cases are being investigated and there has been some suspicion that those cases may not have been in individuals in has good health as initially reported.
In addition to the finding that the virus does not contain the genes of greatest concern, there have not been any further reports to indicate that this response is common. In the United States, for example, there are now hundreds of cases confirmed and possibly as many as several thousand total infections, including those not confirmed, yet there have been only two confirmed deaths, and in both cases, the person was known to have suffered from health problems which could have contributed to increased susceptibility to the flu.
The numbers of those infected may be staggering, with at least five thousand cases now reported and estimates for the actual number of cases in the tens of thousands.
Of course, there is still danger from this flu strain…
The fact that this strain of the flu has not turned out to be the doomsday super-bug that many feared should not be taken to mean that it is harmless. Nor should the reports of deaths be written off as unimportant. Every death due to infectious disease, is, of course, a tragedy, and to the family members of those who lost their life to the flu, the fact that it may not be such a severe strain is little consolation.
However, there is a greater context to this. Each year, influenza kills thousands. Most of those who succumb to the flu are in high risk groups, such as the elderly, those with weakened immune systems due to chronic diseases, cancer treatment or other conditions. Occasionally, even during an otherwise mundane flu season, an otherwise healthy person will die due to complications from the flu. Even the mildest strains of the flu do have a death toll. Modern medical intervention, the flu shot and vigilance has helped to reduce the numbers, but they are still substantial.
Thus, nobody should walk away with the idea that this flu strain is harmless. It can kill, and it will. Those in high risk should always take the precautions prescribed for any outbreak of infectious disease and those who are not should still remain vigilant and aware of the potential for complications. However, even if not harmless, it is becoming more clear that this strain of influenza is probably not substantially more harmful than the strains that have always been floating around.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, May 12th, 2009 at 12:29 pm and is filed under Bad Science, Culture, Good Science, Misc, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
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May 12th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
We will see. The point has been make that the first appearance of the 1981 strain six months before it turned into a full pandemic was not all that bad ether, so I think it’s premature to say we are out of the woods yet.
Nevertheless this Mexican strain WAS killing people and whatever apparatus we have in place to deal with the inevitable rise of a killer virus takes time to rumble into action so I guess I would prefer it to get moving sooner than later in a situation like this, and any rate the system probably benefits from a dry-run like this before the main event.
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May 12th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
One thing about Mexico, you can go into a pharmacy and get anything (short of narcotics) without any prescription required. This leads to self-medication, and I think some really seriously ill people don’t see a doctor until their self-medication fails to help. So, people who (maybe) could have been helped by a doctor wait until it is too late…
There’s alot of other issues with the free-style pharmacy: people with viruses load up on antibiotics (inneffectual on viruses); people start & stop antibiotics (without completing a full course). Both of these practices lead to resistant bugs. Now I don’t think the system here in the US is perfect, but I for one see a value in having medical professionals ‘gatekeeping’ some of these drugs.
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May 12th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
On the one hand there was overeaction. Better that than undereaction in a case like this. Even worse is the wrong kind of reaction. That is what we saw way too much of, here. The best way to stop a pandemic is containment and that was obviously botched. If this had been the real ting things would have already be completely out of control.
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May 12th, 2009 at 8:56 pm
DV82XL said:
EVERY strain of the flu has the ability to become a massive pandemic. This kind of overreaction is becoming the standard issue response to ANY kind of new flu strain or ANY indication that there is even the slightest chance of a pandemic or a major outbreak.
This happened a few years ago with the Avian flu that never even managed to become a human-to-human infection.
A flu outbreak happens: Airports shut down, governments declare a state of emergency, stock markets drop dramatically, people run on pharmacies trying to get anti-flu drugs, students are held out of school while their families stock jugs of water and shot guns in the basement.
This is becoming par for the course and we’re getting to the point where we’re going to see this every year for every flu season and every time a laboratory isolates a new strain the world is going to panic.
When and if a new strain does show up that is clearly very deadly from the beginning, what are we going to do to somehow make it clear that it’s not like the others? if every flu strain means a “state of emergency” is called, then what do you call when there is one that is clearly much greater than the normal strains? Declare a “state of super emergency” or a “State of emergency, no seriously, this time we really mean it.” or a “State of tragic, catastrophic, disastrous and dire emergency”
The National Weather Service understands this. They do not declare a “tornado watch” over every storm that they know has a remote possibility of spawning a tornado. If they did that, the watches would be ignored and even though by using restraint there are the rare occasions that a tornado occurs without a watch or warning ahead of time, it is preferable to getting to the point where one is declared nearly every day and thus it becomes meaningless.
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May 12th, 2009 at 9:16 pm
A certain degree of over reaction is appropriate when trying to head off an outbreak. I think the CDC and some of the other official bodies generally acted correctly. The media on the other hand took the appropriate over reaction and ramped it up into something amazing to behold. And then lots and lots of others got into the over reaction. For example shutting down schools in areas not even known to be affected. That was way over the line.
So in my opinion the swine flu reaction went from a reasonable over reaction to a def con 1 over reaction that wasn’t good.
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May 12th, 2009 at 10:41 pm
The whole thing with the panic and hype was mostly the media. They did over hype it very badly and cause a lot of unnecessary stress. The governments involved did too, but I don’t blame them as much as the media.
Yes, there is something very wrong with calling it on every strain, it causes people to stop listening and wastes a lot of money too.
The one idiot who dropped the ball worst was the VP with his idiotic statements that had the airlines and scared everyone while making the government seem totally out of control. I guess there is the whole issue of readjusting to the new vice president style. Cheney was definitely in command and important (too much so at times) but I think we all knew Biden was an empty suit and a placeholder who was just supposed to not get in the way. He’s an idiot, but oh well, we had an idiot vice president with Dan Quayle so it’s not new.
I do think that it was improper for California to declare a state of emergency on this one though, because a state of emergency is something that should be reserved for major hurricane strikes or a big earthquake or something.
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May 14th, 2009 at 1:11 am
TomT said:
Hmm. “appropriate over reaction” seems like an oxymoron. If the reaction was appropriate, then how is it an over reaction? An over reaction is a reaction greater than what is needed.
Maybe I’m just thinking too hard.
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May 14th, 2009 at 9:52 am
What no one seems to have mentioned is the the regular flu kills a few hundred people every season. In this respect swine flu almost seems benign.
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May 14th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
ciccio said:
36,000 a year in the US according to the CDC.
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May 14th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
I am in Canada, the figure I hear bruited about here is 700 for the season. If it is 36m it only goes to show how this is nothing but hype..
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February 22nd, 2012 at 10:08 am
Hey There Depletedcranium,
Neat Post, Glimpse, I’m not declaring that we shouldn’t get precautionary ways, even if it be attempting to keep our palms disinfected, or becoming the vaccine. But I examine in the information from Indiana:
“10 other people throughout Indiana have died due to the fact June as a consequence of H1N1. In comparison, 700 to 800 citizens die a year of the seasonal flu in Indiana”
So what does that explain to you. 10 women and men in Indiana have died of Swine Flu in the very last four months. Which is a a lot of reduce pace than men and women that die from the traditional flu.
Wishes
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