Some slightly sad news, although not so sad when one considers how long it took for it to happen: the mars rover Spirit is officially now dead. The rover landed on the planet in early 2004 to begin a mission that was anticipated to last about three months. Mission planners and scientists would have considered the mission successful even if the rover didn’t last quite that long and were elated when it continued to function after the anticipated end of the mission.

But it kept on going. It continued to work for months and then years. Along the way there were some glitches. Drilling tools became dull and a wheel eventually got stuck. The rover covered nearly eight kilometers and sent back volumes of scientific data. It observed martian dust devils and other meteorological phenomena and took readings during all periods of the martian year.

In late 2009, the rover became stuck in soft ground in a crater it had been exploring. Having suffered a motor failure and problems with bearings, the rover was unable to get free, but continued to observe and report scientific data to earth.

Finally in March 2010, the rover began to shut down due to lack of sufficient solar power. This was expected and NASA had hoped that communications might be reestablished when longer martian days once again brought power levels high enough to bring the rover out of sleep mode. That was a year ago, and since then NASA has continue to listen for the signals of the rover and send commands in the hope it would respond. It has not.

And so after six years on the Red Planet and five years of functioning, NASA has declared that Spirit is dead and attempts to reestablish communication will be terminated.

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As it is too difficult for me to personally provide updates on the situation in Japan, the following links can provide good up to date, information without sensationalize or uninformed speculation.

TEPCO Press Room – Frequently updated English language press releases from the plant’s operators on the latest state of the reactors.

MIT Nuclear Information Service – Blog-style posts providing expert analysis and information written in layperson’s terminology with good explanations.   Highly recommended.   Rational and direct.

International Atomic Energy Agency – Contains regular press releases on confirmed information relating to the Fukushima reactors. Also provides information on confirmed injuries relating to the nuclear plant. At this time there are no confirmed cases of acute radiation poisoning, though workers have been injured in the explosions at the plant.

Japan Atomic Industrial Forum (English Language Site) – Frequent updates on status of reactors. This site provides some of the best primary information as soon as it is avaliable on both the reactor conditions and efforts underway to address problems. This is the primary source of information used to provide the concise “Status Updates” updates, which are hosted by HPS.
(note that this is not a “forum” in the sense of an internet discussion board)

Health Physics Society – In addition to having updates on the Fukushima, HPS is by far the best site to go to for reference information on the health effects of ionizing radiation, the measurement of radiation, safety issues and other important background info. HPS provides exceptionally well-written and understandable references for media and laypersons.

Fukushima Status Updates – Provided by the Health Physics Society and the Japan Atomic Information Forum, this PDF document is updated whenever new information on the status of the reactors become available. As of this writing, three reactors are severely damaged but stable. All reactors at the nearby Fukushima-2 plant are safe and relatively undamaged. This document offers the best concise rundown of status.

Due to the exceptionally poor reporting and sensationalize in the mainstream press, readers are warned to take press reports, even those from otherwise reputable newspapers with a grain of salt. Likewise, statements by politicians and commentators should not be viewed as necessarily being reliable.

While the world was obsessing over the problems with cooling the cores at severely damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, there are a few things that seem to have gone all but unreported.

This is a terrible situation that goes far beyond the nuclear plant issues.

• As of this posting, at least 2,800 Japanese are confirmed dead. The actual number of dead is unknown.   Many thousands more are missing and feared dead.  Estimates of the actual dead range from ten thousand to more than twenty thousand.  In some areas, half the population is missing and feared dead.
• The number of seriously injured is unknown, but believed to be enormous.   Japanese hospitals are flooded and many hospitals have sustained serious damage and are left with limited or no water or electricity.
• Infrastructure has been destroyed.   Numerous sewer and water systems in Northern Japan are so damaged that major sections will need to be completely rebuilt.   Telecommunications links are severed.  The electrical grid has been severely damaged with transformers, power stations and transmission lines destroyed.   Trains are unable to run because of destroyed track and highways are damaged, making it difficult to transport victims to safety and get supplies to the damaged areas.   Even outside the area directly effected by the quake, power shortages may cause rolling blackouts and energy rationing.
• The number of Japanese left homeless has been reported in he millions. Some of those displaced will likely be able to return to homes that are severely damaged, but recoverable.   However, the total number who have completely lost their homes and all their property is unknown and may be hundreds of thousands or more.
• Hundreds of thousands of Japanese businesses have been destroyed.   Even large businesses like auto makers have seen extensive damage. Millions of workers may be out of a job.
• Reconstruction estimates are now up to 180 billion US dollars and may increase.   The scope of this event is so large that it is almost impossible to fix a single cost to it, as it is so large it exceeded the limits of conventional market economics and could undermine the monetary system of Japan.   Insurance companies and financial institutions are in danger of being wiped out along with retirement funds and other savings.
• Though it has hardly been reported in the media, dam failures have destroyed thousands of structures.
• The crisis has exceeded the ability of japan to provide temporary housing, food and other supplies.   Many are without food or water.
• Refineries are severely damaged, some resulted in huge fires and discharges of oil.
• With sewer and water systems destroyed, thousands of bodies washing in from the sea and huge areas flooded, Japan faces a sanitary and ecological disaster that may dwarf Hurricane Katrina.   The tsunami that followed the quake inundated sewage treatment plants, chemical storage facilities, gas stations and industrial areas.   The level of chemical and biological contamination remains unknown.  Meanwhile, fires are dumping huge plumes of smoke into the atmosphere.

The New York Times has a very sobering gallery of before and after satellite images of the areas hit by the quake and tsunami.

Meanwhile the media is having a field day with the nuclear reactors.   Though the plant was damaged heavily, this is the least of Japan’s problems.

I fear that the continued obsession with the nuclear reactor situation may lead to precious resources and attention being diverted from those who need it most.

8:00 PM Eastern US Time.
Here is the latest reliable information available on the status of the reactors at Fukushima Daiichi:

Reactor 1: The oldest reactor at the plant, reactor one has generated the most concern. It lacks some of the redundancy and cooling systems of the other reactors. An explosion in the reactor support area severely damaged portions of Unit-1 which are not directly related to the operation of the reactor.

Because of the extreme damage to systems on reactor 1, operators decided to use seawater injection for direct cooling. Last reports are that the reactor pressure and temperature is stable. Containment systems are not in danger of failure.

The reactor is probably a write-off. It is possible that a partial meltdown has occurred of some of the fuel. In any case, the core appears to have sustained some severe damage which will preclude it from being put back into operation.

Reactor 2: Auxiliary cooling for reactor two is functioning normally. There does not appear to be any significant damage to the reactor itself, although severe damage to the turbines, electrical equipment and steam systems is likely to have occurred.

Reactor 3: Numerous systems were severely damaged by the tsunami. For a period of time, auxiliary systems on unit 3 continued to provide adequate cooling, but due to the damage incurred, sufficient cooling could not be assured by March 13. Cooling has resumed. TEPCO initially stated that the possibility of hydrogen buildup could not be dismissed, but it appears that any hydrogen has been successfully ventilated.

The status of the core is unknown. The reactor appears to have been stabilized, but it is likely that the core has suffered some level of deformation or, at the very least, cladding degradation. There is no indication of any leak in the reactor containment systems.

Reports now indicate that they are cooling the reactor with seawater. This is unfortunate as it signals that officials have basically decided that the reactor cannot be saved for a return to service. Seawater is obviously not the best choice of coolants as it will contaminate the reactor with salt and other materials. It seems that there is simply no freshwater to cool the reactors because of the destruction of the local water system.

Reactor 4: Unit four was shut down for refueling and routine maintenance. There is sufficient coolant in the system to assure system safety and stability. There are no indications of any leak in the reactor systems.

Reactor 5: Unit five was shut down for refueling and routine maintenance. There is sufficient coolant in the system to assure system safety and stability. There are no indications of any leak in the reactor systems.

Reactor 6: Unit six was shut down for refueling and routine maintenance. There is sufficient coolant in the system to assure system safety and stability. There are no indications of any leak in the reactor systems.

Radiation levels: There have been sporadic and inconsistent reports on the level of radiation measured at the plant. A number of reports have indicated an increase in ambient radiation measurements. This is to be expected due to the venting of steam containing minute amounts of radioactive nucleotides. Increases in background radiation may also occur due to smokey fires in the area, dust kicked up by collapsing structures and other sources of natural radiation. Because of this it is difficult to ascertain exactly how much can be directly attributed to the plant.

A number of reports claimed levels at the plant had risen to anywhere from 70 microserviets per hour to as high as 882 microserviets per hour. There is very little context for these reports – it’s not clear whether this is the level on the plant grounds in general or at the point of the vapor release. It is also not clear whether this is a sustained reading or represents only a momentary high level.

At this point all that can be said for sure is that there is no significant increase in ambient radiation beyond the plant boundary.

There have also been reports of individuals who were “exposed to radiation.” There have been vague reports of three workers who may have received a high enough dose to necessitate medical attention. At this point there’s no solid information on what the doses may have been or the nature of the exposure (whether it was proximity exposure or contamination by radioactive material etc).

At this point we simply do not have any context to the reports of individuals being “exposed to radiation.” However, there remains no evidence of the general public being exposed to radiation, despite some very dramatic photographs of school children being swept with Geiger counters.

UPDATE (11:30 PM EST Mar 13): A second explosion has apparently occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, possibly associated with reactor number 3. The explosion did not cause any significant damage to the reactor itself or to the containment structure. The explosion may also have been caused by hydrogen gas. Officials had warned of the possibility of further explosions because of the difficulties in venting hydrogen gas from the coolant.

It is important to note that while the reactors and containment structures remain sound, the plant and surrounding area have been decimated by the quake and tsunami. Turbines, electrical distribution equipment, administrative buildings and support infrastructure have been damaged or destroyed. The entire area is experiencing continuing fires, explosions and other effects of the damage to industry.

Update 2 (11:00 PM EST Mar 14): Reactor 2, which had been relatively stable with auxiliary systems functioning normally has experienced a series of system failures.   An explosion was reported at the unit, although the cause and severity remain unclear.

Update 3 (12:15 PM EST Mar 15): Reported fire in spent fuel pool of reactor 4.   It is likely that the fire was the result of reduced levels of water covering spent fuel.   Fresh spent fuel requires cooling or heat can build up resulting in cladding catching fire.   Fire was reportedly contained and extinguished rapidly.  Some radioactive material possibly released but extent unknown.

The importance of keeping water in the pool and the need to refill evaporating water depends heavily on how recently the reactor was refueled.   Fuel bundles that have been in the pool for a year or more should be okay with just air convection cooling.  Newer fuel bundles are much hotter.   Any information on the age of the most recent bundles would be appreciated.

The problems at the Fukushima-I nuclear plant have received the most press. However, the earthquake was so enormous that it has had an impact on nearly all industrial structures in northern Japan. Here is the latest information on other nuclear power stations.

The Onagawa Nuclear Power Plant:

The plant reportedly received minor to moderate damage as a result of the earthquake.   Damage reported to steam systems and turbines.   A fire broke out in the turbine room for Onagawa Unit 3, but was quickly contained.   All reactors at Onagawa are now shut down, in part because of extreme damage to the electrical distribution system.   Initially, some media reports were that the plant was experiencing cooling problems, but this does not seem to be accurate.  Current reports are that the cooling systems are all functioning normally.

Higashidōri Nuclear Power Plant:

The Higashidōri Nuclear Power Plant had been shut down for routine maintenance and inspection. There may have been some damage but there are no reports of problems with any of the support systems. Construction had recently begun at Higashidōri as part of a major upgrade. It is unknown whether the earthquake will have any impact on this.

Tōkai Nuclear Power Plant:

No reports of serious damage, however the single operating reactor at the plant was apparently powered down when the quake occurred.

Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant:

Not a power plant, the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant is one of Japan’s primary fuel reprocessing and fabrication plants.  There are no reports of serious damage to the plant, but the earthquake has caused a massive power failure in Northern Japan.   The Rokkasho Plant is now running on backup power.  Routine activities have been temporarily suspended.

I have to say this is some of the most shameful reporting I have seen in a major news outlet in my entire life. Multiple news outlets are reporting a “massive explosion” at the Fukushima nuclear power station in Japan. The implication being that there has been some kind of explosion within the reactor or that dangerous levels of radioactive fallout are present.
Embedded Video Disabled. Please click to view.
The above CBS video starts off with footage of a very real and very dangerous fire that is burning out of control at an oil and gas refinery. At this time those flames do pose a very significant threat of producing a major explosion. There is some footage of the nuclear plant in the report as well and of billowing smoke that is being reported as an “explosion.”

In fact, this is not really an “explosion” in the normal sense of the word at all and it has nothing to do with the nuclear aspects of the plant. It appears to be the catastrophic failure of transformer equipment. Transformers are typically filled with large volumes of oil, which provides electrical insulation and helps to cool the transformer coils. If the transformer malfunctions, the oil can spill out or catch fire as a result of electrical arcs.

When the quake struck the power plant, it was producing electricity and many of the transformers were damaged. Transformer fires are known to produce large billowing clouds of smoke and sudden bursts of flames. The sudden eruption of fire may occur when the oil heats, either as a result of fire or a short circuit and eventually begins to boil. This will cause the oil to overflow the transformer and come out through vents. When this happens it immediately catches fire.

This is what is happening in this video. The transformer experiences a fault that causes it to overheat. Oil begins to burn slowly, but notice that after several seconds the oil has become so heated that it begins to spray out the top of the transformer. It ignites and creates a fireball.

This appears to be what happened at the Fukushima nuclear power station. Transformer fires can be very visually dramatic, but they’re also not terribly uncommon and because of this power plants are designed such that transformers are physically isolated from other important structures, assuring fire can be contained. While it may destroy the transformer, it is nothing that a power plant can’t handle. It poses no threat to the nuclear components of the power station.

UPDATED: A separate explosion, probably caused by hydrogen gas occurred within the reactor building but outside the containment structure of reactor number 1.

UPDATE: Additional information confirms that transformers have been damaged, this accounts for some of the reports of smoke and fires, however, reports also indicate that an explosion may have occurred as the result of hydrogen used to cool the generator coils at the plant. This explosion did not damage the nuclear reactors. Details are still sketchy.

UPDATE 2: Still no official word on whether there was indeed a localized hydrogen explosion. TEPCO reports all reactors appear to be in safe condition.

UPDATE 3:EPCO confirms white smoke seen at turbine building 1. Two workers injured, but extent is unknown. Appears to have been a relatively small explosion. TEPCO information indicates exact cause not known. Hydrogen explosion appears to be speculation at this point. May have also been a steam rupture.

UPDATE 4: Additional reports from Japanrse officials continue to point to hydrogen as the likely cause of the explosion at the TEPCO plant. It seems that the explosion occurred in pumping equipment and may signal that there was some kind of thermal reaction between the zirconium alloy cladding and cooling water.

At this point the Unit-1 core may have sustained extreme damage and the unit appears to be a likely write-off. The plant sustained enormous damage from the huge earthquake. Damage to the core does not itself put the public in danger but it is expensive. Repairing the plant is going to take a long time.

UPDATE 4: (3:45 EST) Reports from NEI and other sources confirm an explosion occurred within the reactor building but outside the main containment structure. The explosion happened in a service area above the reactor’s containment structure. The reactor is still perfectly safe within multiple layers of containment and is not in danger of a major breach or any radiological incident.

Further reports are that the reactor experienced at least a partial uncovering of fuel and that cooling is now being provided by borated seawater which is being pumped directly into the reactor vessel.

This is getting very bad (the reporting) and special interests and anti-nuke propaganda groups are coming out of the woodwork and being interviewed as “experts.” I urge readers to please contact news organizations and complain about the quality of this reporting. I have done so already, and while this kind of thing is not always effective, this is an extreme situation where pro-science activists need to mobilize.

To news organizations looking for real “experts” who can explain the workings of modern reactors and what is going on, some suggestions:

Rod Adams
Ted Rockwell
Kirk Sorenson
Jeremy Whitlock

Every once in a while a comment is flagged as spam despite not being spam. I try to check out the spam folder and correct comments that are flagged as spam when they should not be, but it can be hard, because the spam folder often contains dozens of comments.

It’s something I had not anticipated about blogging. Many of the spammed comments are simple bot-created advertisements for services and attempts to drive web traffic to various sites. Occasionally some will slip through, but by and large filters can catch these by collecting reports from around the web of the addresses and text used.

There’s another kind of spam that is much harder to deal with and causes the most headaches when it comes to misidentifying legitimate comments. A few people (well one especially) take it upon themselves to repeatedly send me email and comment on this website about their own warped beliefs in Nostradamus or their religion and their belief that I represent some kind of evil in the world. This can be a bit difficult to stop when the individual is constantly creating new email addresses, refreshing their IP address and skipping between ISP’s, proxy servers and locations to login to comment. The best way to deal with it is to block key phrases as well as IP ranges and common links, but it’s far from perfect and all too often it catches legitimate comments.

That said, it has proven important to block these comments because when these do eventually get through they seem to encourage the wacko who sends them to send even more.

Here’s just part of what my spam folder looks like:

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I have a Christmas present for the commenter who usually posts as “anonymous” and likes to make completely off-topic rants about how the end is near.   This commenter will usually post totally off topic stuff in whatever the latest post on this blog is and then when challenged for being incredibly rude and spamming will then say that it’s because the issue is urgent and nobody will address it otherwise (sometimes because the comment is not responded to immediately).

Most recently said commenter has been all about the Gulf oil spill.  Yes, I know, it was plugged a while ago, but  apparently he still believes it will be the end of the world.

Anyway, here’s your gift:  Your very own blog post and comment thread.   From now on you can post any of your doomsday theories on here rather than spewing them into other comment threads.   I will add:  ANY FURTHER OFF TOPIC COMMENTS WILL BE MOVED TO THIS POST, so don’t bother posting them elsewhere, you’ll just irritate me further.

In seriousness, however, I will repeat what I have said to this person before, despite the fact that I know they’re not going to do it:

GET HELP!   Seriously, go get some help.   Don’t do it on web forums or chat rooms.  Get some real help from a professional.

There are many places you can go.    If you’re in school (High School, College or whatever) go to your school councilor and they can help you get the help you need.   If you have a primary care physician, go to them and they can help you find what you need – be sure to explain to them that you need more than a single appointment, you want to be directed  to a continuing program.

You can go to a hospital or to a community health center, but be warned that these places are not necessarily the best because they tend to offer short term care and may just give you a tranquilizer and discharge you.  Therefore, if you do go to that kind of a facility, be sure to tell them repeatedly that you are interested in finding out about some kind of ongoing therapy.   Even if you do not have insurance, there are programs, local, state, federal and private charities.  They do exist – there is help there, but you have to take the initiative to go looking for it.   You can ask about your state’s social services agencies.

As a last resort you can go to your local police.   That might not sound like a logical place to go, but community police officers can be very helpful.   Asking a police officer for help does not mean you’re saying you’re a criminal or anything.   Police officers are forced to become mediators in all kinds of disputes and frequently respond to minor domestic disturbances and highly unsettled people all the time.   They deal with people with problems all the time and because of this, they are often very well versed in what kind of programs and services are available in your area.  They know where to refer people to deal with substance, social and mental problems.

But… since you refuse to do that, and continue to post doomsday fantasies, do it here.

In the past few months I’ve started working with a very unique non-profit operation.   I’m employed part time doing their computer work and some of their marketing.   This project is fairly new and is working to becoming a self-sustaining non profit business.

It’s called “Roses for Autism.” Basically we’re a vocational work program that seeks to employ persons on the autism spectrum to provide them job skills so that they can better enter the workforce.  At Roses for Autism, workers can work in an environment where they earn money and learn skills while being supervised and mentored by social workers and job coaches.

On the business side of things, we provide a broad range of working environments.   We’re actually a farm, an office, a retail store, a delivery operation and a power plant.   We’re run out of Pinchbeck’s Rose Farm in Guilford Connecticut.  The farm is the last year-round rose grower in the US.   On site we have two massive glass greenhouses which were built in 1929 and 1936.  They’re the largest greenhouses of their kind in the world. The greenhouses are heated by a huge boiler system which burns agwaste and wood chips that would otherwise be burned on site or put in landfills.  These boilers also power a 150 kw turbine that provides for all of the farms electricity needs and sells back to the grid when running at full capacity.  (a real reliable 150 kilowatts)   There’s also a retail store on site as well as an office where we handle orders from distributors and wholesale buyers.  Finally, we have a large shop for arranging, packaging and grading the roses.

I didn’t make this video:

Now here is where I need your help:

Pepsi Corporation has a project called the “Refresh Challenge” which awards grants of $250,000 US to two non-profit projects  each month.    It’s based on popularity from voting on the internet and via text messages.    Roses for Autism is currently one of the contenders for the $250,000.   If we are at number 1 or 2 at the end of the month, we get the money!

We hope to use it for expanding the business and achieving a self-sustaining private business  very soon.

You can vote by either of the following ways:

Text: 103448 to Pepsi (73774) – I know this works in the United States, but I can’t vouch for the rest of the world.

OR

Vote online. You can vote by creating an account with the Refresh Challenge or with your existing Facebook account.

YOU DO NOT HAVE TO VOTE ONLY ONCE.  YOU CAN VOTE AS OFTEN AS ONCE A DAY!

So please do vote and vote often.  Also, get your friends, mom, dad, sister, brother, co-workers, customers, professor, mistress, mentor, doctor, lawyer, cell mate, parole officer and anyone else you know to vote for this.

Oh…and I suppose I just might get a raise too if we win… but that’s not why, because I also might not get a raise if we win.

When this was first brought to my attention I was sure it had to be a spoof – a video satirizing the green and eco-fascism movement by showing what it could ultimately lead to.   After all, no real group would produce a video so grotesque, so violent and preaching such a message of hatred and intolerance for those who don’t support the cause.

I was wrong.   This is a “minimovie” that was really made to support a real organization that really seems to think that what they are doing is so important that those who are not in complete agreement are expendable.   The organization 10:10 is a UK-based group advocating individual actions to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 10%

The video has since been taken down and the group made this statement:

Sorry
With climate change becoming increasingly threatening, and decreasingly talked about in the media, we wanted to find a way to bring this critical issue back into the headlines whilst making people laugh. We were therefore delighted when Britain’s leading comedy writer, Richard Curtis – writer of Blackadder, Four Weddings, Notting Hill and many others – agreed to write a short film for the 10:10 campaign. Many people found the resulting film extremely funny, but unfortunately some didn’t and we sincerely apologise to anybody we have offended.

As a result of these concerns we’ve taken it off our website. We won’t be making any attempt to censor or remove other versions currently in circulation on the internet.

We’d like to thank the 50+ film professionals and 40+ actors and extras and who gave their time and equipment to the film for free. We greatly value your contributions and the tremendous enthusiasm and professionalism you brought to the project.

At 10:10 we’re all about trying new and creative ways of getting people to take action on climate change. Unfortunately in this instance we missed the mark. Oh well, we live and learn.

Onwards and upwards,

It’s really not the gore or overstated fake blood and guts that bother me in this case. I’ve seen plenty of second rate horror films and such over-the-top cinematic fake blood doesn’t really offend me.

Those who have read this blog probably know that I don’t think much of efforts to encourage people to conserve a few percent on their own. It’s really not the kind of thing that amounts to much, especially considering that most carbon dioxide emissions are industrial and that it can be difficult to measure the full system effects of an individual taking steps that conserve energy locally. Really, it amounts to window dressing and the only way to actually make an impact on overall emissions is with institutional change – changing how power is generated especially and shifting to new sources of foundation energy.

Even if we all cut back energy usage by 10%, as long as we still use coal and other fossil fuels as the primary source of energy, that still leaves 90% of the problem. It also is difficult, if not impossible, to actually measure whether everyone is sticking to this pledge and to assess the greater impacts on the system. In order for it to work, we have to determine what the total energy balance is of the steps taken for conservation and what energy sources those steps impact greatest – a complex problem.

You can disagree with that. That’s fine. If you think that encouraging everyone to cut back by 10% is worthwhile, you’re entitled to that opinion. You can go promote that all you want. However to imply that people like myself and those others who don’t agree 100% with you on this topic are worthy of being slaughtered is crossing a new line of blatant fascist rhetoric.

If this still doesn’t seem like a big deal to you, try substituting another issue into this video “Everyone do something to help reduce abortion” or “Everyone should try to promote universal health care” or “Everyone should work to eat 10% less meat” or “Everyone should donate 10% more money to charity… no pressure.”

By the way: Even those who are 100% against nuclear energy, totally sold on the idea that mobile phones cause cancer, believe coal is harmless and lobby for “intelligent design” to be taught in school, while I think you may be completely wrong and hurting society in general, I don’t think I have the right to end your life because of it.