Incase I didn’t mention it before (and I’m pretty sure I didn’t) I’m going to be attending this year’s Amazing Meeting (number 7 but only my 3rd) out in Fabulous Las Vegas.  It’s a skeptical event put on by the James Randi Educational Foundation.   I even get to be there the 12th for my birthday!

Not too sure if I’ll be posting from there.  I do have a laptop with me, but chances are it will be just too busy and awesome to stop to post.  I’ll be back the 13th.

If anyone who reads this is going to be there, be sure to say hi!  I’ll be staying at the event hotel and shouldn’t be too hard to find!

Now that the Montel Williams Show is no longer being filmed we won’t be privy to this spectical anymore, but at the end of each year, Sylvia Browne, a self-proclaimed psychic would issue her predictions for the next year.   Last year I noted that her predictions for 2007 were very very wrong.   However, it seems her predictions for 2008 are, believe it or not, even worse.

Now that the year 2008 is over, we can look back and laugh at just how amazingly, ridiculously wrong she was.

2008 was a year with a large number of economic news stories but she missed every single one of them.   She said the job market would improve (it got worse.) and also that the auto industry would improve dramatically due to the introduction of hybrid vehicles.

Predicting the introduction of hybrid vehicles by US automakers is certainly not difficult because by the end of 2007 there were already hybrids on the market and their market-share was improving. While hybrids continue to gain in popularity they have not turned around the auto market.

US auto-makers are still retooling for hybrid production. GM’s first next-generation hybrid is slated for introduction in 2010. Ford hopes to expand hybrid production in 2009 and introduce plug-in hybrids in 2010 or 2010. Chrysler expects to produce electric drivetrain vehicles within the next five to seven years.

No expansion or change in fortunes in 2008, that is for sure.  She completely missed the dramatic and worldwide slump in the economy.  Medical stocks have done no better than other stocks and many have done worse.

Robert S. Lancaster continues in his recovery from the stroke he suffered this past summer.   Of course, we all wish him the best.

South Park is the kind of show that most people don’t associate with good information and a positive social agenda.   Rather, it’s the kind of show which has a reputation for crude humor and ridiculous situations.   That title is not entirely undeserved, considering that the show has such things as a recurring character that is literally a talking piece of crap.

However, the creators of the show, Matt Stone and Trey Parker are actually allies of the skeptic movement – so much so that they attended The Amazing Meeting 5.  Several episodes of the series actually do a pretty good job of putting forward the message of skepticism, even if doing so in a somewhat crude manner.   The service which South Park provides is not exactly the traditional kind of pro-science information, but rather addressing claims and beliefs in a manner that conveys all the ridicule and lack of respect that they’ve earned.

Some might say that a show like South Park is far too crude and ridiculous to even consider an ally  in the fight against bad science.   However, lets not forget that not everyone reads scientific journals and a show like South Park can really help get the message out to a more broad and diverse segment of the population.   Of course, it’s not the pinnacle of public policy in science, far from it, but it is just one more portion of the mass media that can help touch a demographic.

Some of the best episodes:

(Which can be watched in full online by following the link)

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In found an interesting post over on Slashdot regarding a recent study on how ideology can affect a person’s beliefs on matters of a more factual nature. The study cites a number of different examples of the phenomena of people believing things which appear to be strongly influenced by their opinion on an ideological matter. It’s not surprising because inductive logic and selective memory can often be used to consciously or unconsciously ‘cherry pick’ data and facts to support a given view point.

The article linked also cites the difficulty of disputing myths with valid information, as this may only serve to make matters worse. This is something touched on here not too long ago.

The study cites one example as being the source of news and how that correlates to a person’s answers to issues of fact. It cites Fox News, a news source known for being of a conservative leaning as having viewers who are more likely to believe that the US has found weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and that Saddam Hussein was found to be connected to Al Queda, versus other news outlets of a less conservative leaning . The implication is that those who turn to Fox News are of a more conservative and pro-war ideology. However, I’m a little skeptical here. The reasoning for this may have to do with internal cherry picking of data and ideology shaping beliefs, but it could also be because a more conservative news source is more likely to ’spin’ things in favor of a given belief.

In some cases, the truth is not always so simple. For example, the question of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Strictly speaking, weapons of mass destruction have been found in Iraq. Weapons of mass destruction are commonly classified as weapons that go beyond conventional means of causing damage and include weaponized nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. In the case of Iraq, the claims of WMD’s pertains to chemical weapons. And indeed, chemical weapons have been found in Iraq. Therefore, the question of WMD’s being found in the country is technically that they have been found.

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If you’re active in the skeptic community this probably does not come as news to you, but having been busy myself I only recently found out that Mr. Robert S. Lancaster has been hospitalized with a stroke, which he apparently suffered earlier this month.   Mr. Lancaster is the man behind the websites stopkaz.com and stopsylviabrowne.com.  Mr. Lancaster got started on his campaign to stop these vicious frauds out of his own outrage at acts of taking advantage of hapless and desperate individuals.

His most recent site, Stopsylviabrowne.com has been very successful.  He was the first one to bring to the attention of the media that Ms. Browne had previously predicted Shawn Hornsbeck had been killed and even described his body’s disposal area.   He has also exposed many other lies and examples of outright false and harmful predictions and statements made by Brown and he is more responsible than anyone else for turning the tide of public opinion and media coverage against her.

Although it’s hard to be sure that Mr. Lancaster was the reason for it’s demise, the Montel Williams show, the primary venue where Ms. Browne defrauded her victims and extended her media presence, has announced that it has ended production of new episodes as of May 2008.  The show will continue only in reruns to finish the commitment to its syndication.   This along with the information Mr. Lancaster has worked so hard to provide on his site has helped to undermine Browne’s scams and schemes.

Mr. Lancaster has gotten a lot of attention and support from skeptics, all of which is well deserved.   Aside from his achievements in fighting fraud, Mr. Lancaster is also a gracious, good humored and generally great guy and a friend to any skeptic or bad-science oppose.   Unfortunately I didn’t have the opportunity to get a picture of Mr. Lancaster with myself but here’s a picture I snapped this past June of Mr. Lancaster while we were enjoying a party during The Amazing Meeting:

It is worth noting that Mr. Lancaster actually had the chance to confront Ms. Brown at one of her shows in Las Vegas this past June.  You can read an account here, but it wasn’t all that exciting, because Mr. Lancaster was characteristically polite and classy and Ms. Browne was characteristically evasive (she asked security to make him leave.)

Since his stroke, Mr. Lancaster has been in the ICU and has been more unconscious than conscious.   His condition has apparently stabilized but it’s too early to be sure how things will turn out.  One thing is for sure, though, and that is that he will have a long road to recovery.

Of course, we wish him the very best.  (Although, this really doesn’t matter.   Wish him good or bad.  Pray for him to do better or worse.  It doesn’t actually make any difference)  However, if you would like to do something that does actually help then rather than praying or hoping or making a good luck charm or something useless like that, you can go here to make a donation to help Mr. Lancaster with his recovery and his continued fight against scams and scammers.

“Shirley Ghostman” claims to be a powerful psychic, seer, clairvoyant, medium and many other things that don’t exist. In reality, however, Shirly Ghostman is just a character in an over-the-top spoof show. He goes around playing up the ruse to unsuspecting audiences and does readings. The spoof is a bit akin to Sacha Baron Cohen’s Borat character. It’s a great parody and it can be extremely funny to see psychics lampooned to the unsuspecting.

It does illustrate a problem facing skeptics, however. How does one tell a joke from someone who legitimately believes in a paranormal phenomona? It’s harder than one might think because no matter how outlandish the spoof it, it’s difficult to be certain that it’s not a real belief. I have to admit that there have been more than a few times when I was simply unable to figure out whether or not something was a joke or whether someone was actually serious about trying to sell it. I’m still not sure which way the Phrenology page goes. Is it all a joke? Could someone really honestly be pushing a concept so absurd? I honestly could go either way with it.

Here’s a video which had me literally laughing so hard I almost fell out of my chair. It was shown at TAM this past June and it shows a segment “Shirley Versus the Skeptics” in which Christopher French is the skeptic in the hot seat. After I had a chance to talk to Christopher French, who joined me and several others for lunch after the events. He explained that during the taping he really wasn’t sure what to make of it. He suspected that it was likely a joke because it was so over the top and ridiculous, but wasn’t absolutely sure.

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While at “The Amazing Meeting” I had the chance to see part of the pilot episode for a television show which is currently being pitched called “The Skeptologists.” The show features a group of skeptics, (most of whom I actually know) who go out and investigate and debunk various claims of paranormal activity, alternative science, conspiracy theories and alike. Some of those on the show include my friend Dr. Steven Novella, Phil Plait (The Bad Astronomer), Michael Shermer along with others whom I am not actually acquainted with, Yau-Man Chan, Mark Edward, Dr. Kirsten Sanford and Brian Dunning.

I had really hoped I could post the trailer, because that was what I wanted to discuss, but it is apparently not up on the internet or public as of yet, so while I relish the opportunity of having seen something that others can’t, I really wish I had the video to talk about. However, I found this trailer/teaser, which at least gives some background.

So that gives *some* impression of the show. I have to say that I really like the concept, and I think it has potential. The take of the show has to be at least somewhat unique, because there are already a few very good skeptically-oriented television shows out there. These include Mythbusters, Penn and Teller’s Bullshit, Is it Real, and also shows like Brainiac, which espouses to be skeptical but actually forges their results quite blatantly.That having been said, I’d also like to offer some constructive criticism for the show.It’s hard to really make this applicable to those who had not seen the pilot, but I was a little dismayed to see how scripted and artificial it turned out to be. It began with an introduction to the cast, one at a time, giving their own blurb on their backgrounds. It worked okay, but it didn’t really do a great job in providing a ‘natural’ character introduction – it came off more as giving a verbal résumé. (more…)

At the Amazing Meeting I had a free night and decided to go to a small concert even though it cost a bit extra. In hindsight, I’m really really glad I went. The performer was Greydon Square, a rapper with a very skeptical and pro-science viewpoint. This guy blew me away. The reason I was so surprised is that to be honest, I do not like rap music. Actually, I hate it. I don’t even let my friends play it in my car. I’m really a classic rock kind of guy and my dislike of rap is not due to the cultural aspects or the message of it, I simply do not find the strong beat, repetitive nature and the general focus on beat rather than melody to be pleasing to the ear or to be the kind of music I find enjoyable.

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Skeptics are not one monolithic group, and while most (nearly all) reject stuff that is as cut and dry as ghosts or homeopathy, there are varying opinions on some things. I’m glad to see environmentalism is becoming more of an issue to skeptics but there were still some things I was just not so keen on.

Well, only two of them really…

 

 

Okay, the second one, I’m not totally opposed to everything Michio Kaku has to say. He’s recently been talking a lot about theoretical physics and the physics behind stuff like time travel and faster than light travel. While this is totally theoretical (because it usually tends to involve things that we can’t do like going near black holes or producing huge amounts of energy on demand), it still is always good to get people to dream and learn physics in the process. However, his spouting of crap on depleted uranium, nuclear energy and other topics (of which he doesn’t actually seem to know all that much) really has gotten a bit annoying. So I’m not sure where to put this guy.

He was also a big founder of String Theory.  Recently, String Theory has seemed to be a bit less hot than it was before and it may turn out to be a dead end.  We shall see, but either way it’s still worthwhile to put forward reasonable hypotheses that later turn out to be wrong, as long as you admit it when they do.    Dr. Kaku clearly is an accomplished physicist but it’d be nice if he put science before getting attention a bit more…

Well, this is my first full day back home on the East Coast of the United States, having returned from The Amazing Meeting 6 in Las Vegas Nevada. I had also attended The Amazing Meeting 5, about a year and a half ago. For those who might not know, the Amazing Meeting is an annual get together hosted by the James Randi Educational Foundation and featuring skeptics, critical thinkers, educators, scientists and generally those who promote skeptical and logical thinking and oppose superstitions, myth-driven policies, quackery, scamming, perpetuation of misinformation and that kind of thing.

This year saw a great turn out with over 900 attendees at the meeting. Many of them were people I had the pleasure of meeting before and others were new to me or new to the entire skeptical movement. There were also some excellent guests and speakers who attended the meeting. The presence of well known figures certainly makes the meeting special, especially for those new to the meeting, but the best part of the meeting is that the speakers are not only seen up on stage, but rather are part of the entire social experience of the event. Many of the attendees who are not there as speakers or presenters, but only as attendees have equally fascinating backgrounds to those on stage. Attendees come from around the world and from all walks of life. It is one of the few organizations where new members and long standing pillars of the community rub elbows and where senior citizens and college freshmen exchange ideas without concern for age or background. Nearly everyone had something interesting and worthwhile to add.

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